Whirlpool (Whirlpool) Predictability Rank

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What is Whirlpool Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Whirlpool Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Whirlpool Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Whirlpool (Whirlpool) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Whirlpool Corp (NYSE:WHR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WHR:Germany WHR:Germany W1HR34:Brazil

Address

2000 North M-63, Benton Harbor, MI, USA, 49022-2692

Website

https://www.whirlpoolcorp.com

Whirlpool Corp is a manufacturer and marketer of home appliances and related products. Its reportable segments consist of North America; Europe, the Middle East and Africa ("EMEA"); Latin America and Asia. Product categories include refrigeration, laundry, cooking, and dishwashing. The company has also a portfolio of small domestic appliances, including the KitchenAid stand mixer. The company's international brands include Whirlpool, KitchenAid, Maytag, Consul, and Brastemp among others.

Executives

Rudolph Wilson	director	2000 N. M-63, BENTON HARBOR MI 49085
James W Peters	officer: EXEC VICE PRESIDENT AND CFO	2000 M-63N, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Marc R Bitzer	director, officer: CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER	2000 M-63N, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Juan Carlos Puente	officer: EVP & PRES. WHIRLPOOL LAR	2000 N. M-63, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Carey L Martin	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	2000 N. M-63, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Ava Harter	officer: EVP & Chief Legal Officer	ONE OWENS CORNING PARKWAY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Christopher S Conley	officer: Vice President and Controller	2000 N M-63, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Gary T Dicamillo	director	888 WASHINGTON STREET, DEDHAM MA 02027
Everhart Carl E. Winn	officer: EVP & PRESIDENT, NA	2000 N. M-63, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Joseph T. Liotine	officer: EXEC VICE PRESIDENT & PRES NA	2000 M-63N, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Gilles Morel	officer: EVP AND PRESIDENT, EMEA	2000 N-M63, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Shengpo Wu	officer: PRESIDENT, ASIA	ONE AMERICAN ROAD, DEARBORN MI 48126
Joao Carlos Brega	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	2000 M-63N, BENTON HARBOR MI 49022
Jennifer A. Laclair	director	ALLY DETROIT CENTER, 500 WOODWARD AVENUE, DETROIT MI 48226
Greg Creed	director	1441 GARDINER LANE, LOUISVILLE KY 40213