Washington Trust Bancorp (Washington Trust Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Washington Trust Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Washington Trust Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Washington Trust Bancorp (Washington Trust Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Washington Trust Bancorp Inc (NAS:WASH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WT1:Germany

Address

23 Broad Street, Westerly, RI, USA, 02891

Website

https://www.washtrust.com

Washington Trust Bancorp Inc through its subsidiaries offers banking and financial services to individuals and businesses. It operates in two segments. The Commercial Banking segment includes lending activities, commercial loans, residential real estate loan deposit activities, and others. The Wealth Management Services segment consists of investment management, financial planning, personal trust, and estate services including services as trustee, personal representative, custodian and guardian, and settlement of decedents' estates. The bank generates a majority of its revenue from the Commercial Banking segment.

Executives

Mary E. Noons	officer: SVP Retail Lending	37 WATCH HILL WAY, WAKEFIELD RI 02879
Rolando A Lora	officer: EVP and Chief Retail Lend Off	140 STOW RD., HARVARD MA 01451
Howes Constance A	director	253 FREEMAN PARKWAY, PROVIDENCE RI 02906
Edwin J Santos	director	234 MOURNING DOVE DRIVE, SAUNDERSTOWN RI 02874
Kristen L Disanto	officer: EVP Human Resources	23 BROAD STREET, WESTERLY RI 02891
Ronald S. Ohsberg	officer: EVP and Treasurer	33 BELLE ISLE WAY, CRANSTON RI 02921
Dennis L Algiere	officer: SVP Compliance & Comm Affairs
Jabbie Alimamy Dauda Jr.	director	16 TECUMSEH STREET, PROVIDENCE RI 02906
Joseph P. Gencarella	director	11 BLUEBILL AVE., APT. 604, NAPLES FL 34108
James M Hagerty	officer: EVP & Chief Lending Officer	180 NATICK AVENUE, WARWICK RI 02886
Joseph J Marcaurele	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	23 BROAD STREET, WESTERLY RI 02891
Lisa M. Stanton	director	17064 CROSSGATE DRIVE, JUPITER FL 33477
Wray William K. Sr.	officer: SVP Risk Management	71 CHURCH STREET, EAST GREENWICH RI 02818
Sandra Parrillo	director	3 ROBIN WAY, NORTH SMITHFIELD RI 02896
Katherine W Hoxsie	director