Vulcan Materials Co (Vulcan Materials Co) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1957. Start your Free Trial

What is Vulcan Materials Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Vulcan Materials Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Vulcan Materials Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Vulcan Materials Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Vulcan Materials Co (Vulcan Materials Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Building Materials » Vulcan Materials Co (NYSE:VMC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

V1MC34:Brazil

Address

1200 Urban Center Drive, Birmingham, AL, USA, 35242

Website

https://www.vulcanmaterials.com

Vulcan Materials is the United States' largest producer of construction aggregates (crushed stone, sand, and gravel). Its largest markets include Texas, California, Virginia, Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Alabama. In 2022, Vulcan sold 263.4 million tons of aggregates, 12.2 million tons of asphalt mix, and 10.5 million cubic yards of ready-mix. As of Dec. 31, 2022, the company had nearly 16 billion tons of aggregates reserves.

Executives

Stanley G Bass	officer: Chief Growth Officer	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
David P Clements	officer: Senior Vice President, Central	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Melissa H. Anderson	director	ALBEMARLE CORPORATION, 4250 CONGRESS ST. SUITE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28209
J Thomas Hill	officer: Sr VP - South Region	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Randy L. Pigg	officer: Vice President and Controller	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Mary Andrews Carlisle	officer: SVP and CFO	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Lydia H Kennard	director	155 N LAKE AVE, PASADENA CA 91101
Darren L. Hicks	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Perkins Jerry F Jr	officer: General Counsel and Secetary	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Jason P Teter	officer: President, S&GC Division	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Ronnie A Pruitt	officer: Senior Vice President	C/O U.S. CONCRETE, INC., 331 N. MAIN STREET, EULESS TX 76039
David P Steiner	director	1001 FANNIN ST, STE 4000, HOUSTON TX 77002
George Willis	director	55 GLENLAKE PARKWAY, NE, ATLANTA GA 30328
Franklin Denson N. Iii	officer: SVP & General Counsel	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242
Michael R Mills	officer: Senior Vice President and Gene	1200 URBAN CENTER DRIVE, BIRMINGHAM AL 35242