Union Pacific (Union Pacific) Predictability Rank

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What is Union Pacific Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Union Pacific Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Union Pacific (Union Pacific) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Union Pacific Corp (NYSE:UNP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UNP:Mexico 1UNP:Italy UNPd:UK UNP:Germany UNP:Germany UNP:Germany UNP:Germany UPAC34:Brazil UNPC:Austria

Address

1400 Douglas Street, Omaha, NE, USA, 68179

Website

http://www.up.com

Omaha, Nebraska-based Union Pacific is the largest public railroad in North America. Operating on more than 30,000 miles of track in the western two thirds of the U.S., UP generated $25 billion of revenue in 2022 by hauling coal, industrial products, intermodal containers, agriculture goods, chemicals, and automotive goods. UP owns about one fourth of Mexican railroad Ferromex and derives roughly 10% of its revenue hauling freight to and from Mexico.

Executives

Jennifer L Hamann	officer: EVP & CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	1400 DOUGLAS STREET, OMAHA NE 68130
Eric J Gehringer	officer: EVP Operations	1400 DOUGLAS STREET, OMAHA NE 68179
Kenyatta G Rocker	officer: EVP Marketing & Sales	1400 DOUGLAS STREET, OMAHA NE 68179
John Wiehoff	director
Doyle Simons	director	220 OCCIDENTAL AVENUE SOUTH, SEATTLE WA 98104
Rahul Jalali	officer: EVP & CIO	1400 DOUGLAS STREET, OMAHA NE 68179
Elizabeth F Whited	officer: EVP & CHIEF MARKETING OFFICER	1400 DOUGLAS ST, OMAHA NE 68179
Teresa M. Finley	director	927 STOVALL BOULEVARD NE, ATLANTA GA 30319
Sheri H. Edison	director	1069 STATE ROUTE 46 EAST, BATESVILLE IN 47006
Todd M. Rynaski	officer: VP CONTROLLER & CAO UPC	1400 DOUGLAS STREET, STOP 1780, OMAHA NE 68179
Craig V Richardson	officer: EVP CLO & Corp Sec	1400 DOUGLAS STREET, OMAHA NE 68179
Delaney William J Iii	director	1390 ENCLAVE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77077
Vincenzo J Vena	officer: CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER	1400 DOUGLAS STREET, OMAHA NE 68179
Christopher J Williams	director	650 FIFTH AVE, 10TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10019
Knight Robert M Jr	officer: Senior Vice President Finance	UNION PACIFIC CORP, 1416 DODGE ST, OMAHA NE 68179