Unum Group (Unum Group) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Unum Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Unum Group (Unum Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Unum Group (NYSE:UNM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UUM:Germany UUM:Germany

Address

1 Fountain Square, Chattanooga, TN, USA, 37402

Website

https://www.unum.com

Unum Group is a provider of group and individual income protection insurance products in the United States, the United Kingdom, Poland, and other countries. It is the largest domestic disability insurer, with the majority of premiums generated from employer plans. The company also offers a complementary portfolio of other insurance products, including long-term care insurance, life insurance, and employer- and employee-paid group benefits. It has the following operating business segments: Unum US, Unum International, and Colonial Life. The majority of the revenue is earned from the Unum US segment. The firm markets its products primarily through brokers.

Executives

Puneet Bhasin	officer: Chief Info & Digital Officer	1001 FANNIN, SUITE 4000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Christopher W Pyne	officer: EVP, Group Benefits	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, LAW DEPT. (7N200), CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Timothy Gerald Arnold	officer: EVP, President & CEO, Colonial	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Mojgan M Lefebvre	director	385 WASHINGTON STREET, ST. PAUL MN 55102
Rice Walter Lynn Jr	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402-1307
Michael Q Simonds	officer: EVP, President & CEO, Unum US	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, LAW DEPT. (7S730), CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Gloria C Larson	director	UNUM GROUP, 1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Lisa G Iglesias	officer: EVP, General Counsel	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, LAW DEPT. 7S730, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Richard P Mckenney	officer: Executive Vice President	UNUM GROUP, 1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Cherie Pashley	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, LAW DEPT. 7N200, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Gale V. King	director	123 SOUTH FRONT STREET, MEMPHIS TN 38103
Francis Shammo	director	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Timothy F Keaney	director	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, LAW DEPT. 7S730, CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Mark Paul Till	officer: EVP & CEO Designate, Unum Intl	1 FOUNTAIN SQUARE, LAW DEPARTMENT (E7N200), CHATTANOOGA TN 37402
Martha Leiper	officer: EVP, Chief Investment Officer	9800 FREDERICKSBURG ROAD, SAN ANTONIO TX 78288