UniFirst (UniFirst) Predictability Rank

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What is UniFirst Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

UniFirst Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

UniFirst Predictability Rank Related Terms

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UniFirst (UniFirst) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » UniFirst Corp (NYSE:UNF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

68 Jonspin Road, Wilmington, MA, USA, 01887

Website

http://www.unifirst.com

UniFirst Corp provides workplace uniforms, protective clothing, and other workplace products and services to businesses in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The U.S. and Canadian Rental and Cleaning segment that accounts for the majority of the company engages in sales rents and sells clothing and non-garment items, and offers a cleaning service that delivers clean uniforms when it picks up dirty or contaminated ones. Manufacturing segment designs and manufactures uniforms and non-garment items. Specialty garments rental and cleaning segment provides specialty garments, non-garments, and cleaning services for nuclear and classroom applications. The First Aid segment provides safety supplies and pill packaging. The Corporate segment consists of various associated costs.

Executives

David A Difillippo	officer: Senior VP of Operations
Matthew Croatti	10 percent owner	C/O UNIFIRST CORPORATION, 68 JONSPIN ROAD, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Michael A Croatti	officer: Senior VP of Operations	C/O UNIFIRST CORPORATION, 68 JONSPIN ROAD, WILMINGTON MA 01887
William Masters Ross	officer: Senior VP of Operations	C/O UNIFIRST CORPORATION, 68 JONSPIN ROAD, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Shane O'connor	officer: Senior VP and CFO	68 JONSPIN ROAD, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Steven S Sintros	officer: VP of Finance and CFO	68 JONSPIN RD., WILMINGTON MA 01888
Sergio A Pupkin	director	C/O SEALED AIR CORPORATION, 2415 CASCADE POINTE BOULEVARD, CHARLOTTE NC 28208
David Martin Katz	officer: VP of Sales and Marketing	68 JONSPIN ROAD, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Joseph M Nowicki	director	C/O BEACON ROOFING SUPPLY, INC., 505 HUNTMAR PARK DRIVE SUITE 300, HERNDON VA 20170
Cynthia Croatti	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive VP and Treasurer	68 JONSPIN ROAD, WILMINGTON DC 01887
Carol Croatti	10 percent owner	21 JEFFERSON DRIVE, LONDONDERRY NH 03053
The Ronald D Croatti Trust - 1993	10 percent owner	C/O CAROL CROATTI, 21 JEFFERSON DRIVE, LONDONDERRY NH 03053
Kathleen M Camilli	director
Michael Iandoli	director	68 JONSPIN RD, WILMINGTON MA 01887
Phillip L Cohen	director	68 JONSPIN ROAD, WILMINGTON MA 01887