Tradeweb Markets (Tradeweb Markets) Predictability Rank

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What is Tradeweb Markets Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tradeweb Markets Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Tradeweb Markets Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Tradeweb Markets (Tradeweb Markets) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Tradeweb Markets Inc (NAS:TW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4T0:Germany 4T0:Germany

Address

1177 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

https://www.tradeweb.com

Founded in 1998 and headquartered in New York City, Tradeweb Markets is a leading fixed-income trading platform. While it does offer electronic processing for some voice-negotiated trades, the company focuses primarily on providing electronic trading networks that connect broker/dealers, institutional clients, and retail customers. While the company offers trading in a wide variety of products, the bulk of its business is in U.S. and European government debt, mortgage-backed securities, interest-rate swaps, and U.S. and international corporate bonds. The firm also sells fixed-income trading and price data, primarily through a deal with Refinitiv's Eikon service.

Executives

William Hult	director, officer: President	TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Douglas Friedman	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Scott Zucker	officer: Chief Admin. and Risk Officer	TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Enrico Bruni	officer: Managing Director, Europe/Asia	TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Justin Peterson	officer: Chief Technology Officer	TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Rana Yared	director	1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Catherine Johnson	director	1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Tradeweb Markets Inc.	director	1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Steven Berns	director	TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Sara Furber	officer: Chief Financial Officer	MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 522 FIFTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10036
Lee Olesky	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Troy Dixon	director	PO BOX 25250, PMB 13941, MIAMI FL 33102
Jacques Aigrain	director	C/O LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES N.V., DELFTSEPLEIN 27E, ROTTERDAM P7 3013AA
Simon Maisey	officer: Managing Director, Corp. Dev.	TRADEWEB MARKETS INC., 1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Balbir Bakhshi	director	1177 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036