What is Tupperware Brands Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Tupperware Brands Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Tupperware Brands (Tupperware Brands) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
14901 South Orange Blossom Trail, Orlando, FL, USA, 32837
Tupperware Brands Corp is a consumer products company that designs innovative, functional, and environmentally responsible products. The company distributes its products into nearly 70 countries. The company engages in the marketing, manufacture, and sale of design-centric preparation, storage, and serving solutions for the kitchen and home through the Tupperware brand name. The company primarily uses a direct selling business model to distribute and market products, while continuing to expand digital platforms and business-to-business distribution channels. The company operates its business under four reportable segments in four broad geographic regions namely the Asia Pacific, Europe (Europe, Africa and the Middle East), North America, and South America.
Executives
| Lori H Bush |
director |
NU SKIN ENTERPRISES INC, 75 WEST CENTER, PROVO UT 84601 |
| Laurie Ann Goldman |
officer: President and CEO |
3344 PEACHTREE ROAD, SUITE 1700, ATLANTA GA 30326 |
| William L Transier |
director |
3505 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY NORTH, SUITE 400, HOUSTON TX 77043 |
| Paul Keglevic |
director |
STELLUS CAPITAL, 10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Paul Aronzon |
director |
13135 DAIRY ASHFORD, SUITE 800, SUGAR LAND TX 77478 |
| Brian J Fox |
officer: Chief Restructuring Officer |
C/O XERIUM TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 8537 SIX FORKS ROAD, SUITE 300, RALEIGH NC 27615 |
| Richard Goudis |
director, officer: Executive Vice Chairman |
C/O HERBALIFE INTERNATIONAL, INC., 1800 CENTURY PARK EAST, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Fernandez Calero Miguel Angel |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
800 W. OLYMPIC BLVD. SUITE 406, LOS ANGELES CA 90015 |
| Mark S Burgess |
director |
C/O GRAHAM PACKAGING HOLDINGS COMPANY, 2410 PLEASANT VALLEY ROAD, YORK PA 17402 |
| Ingen Jim Van |
officer: EVP Supply Chain |
C/O TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORPORATION, 14901 S ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32837 |
| Christopher D Oleary |
director |
ONE GENERAL MILLS BLVD, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55426 |
| James H Fordyce |
director |
|
| Pamela Jones Harbour |
director |
C/O TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORPORATION, 14901 S ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32837 |
| Tim Minges |
director |
C/O TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORPORATION, 14901 S ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32837 |
| Hector Lezama |
officer: Pres., Comm. Bus. Expansion |
C/O TUPPERWARE BRANDS CORPORATION, 14901 S ORANGE BLOSSOM TRAIL, ORLANDO FL 32837 |
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