The Timken Co (The Timken Co) Predictability Rank

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What is The Timken Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Timken Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Timken Co (The Timken Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » The Timken Co (NYSE:TKR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

TKR:Mexico TKH:Germany TKH:Germany

Address

4500 Mount Pleasant Street North West, North Canton, OH, USA, 44720-5450

Website

https://www.timken.com

The Timken Company is a manufacturer of bearings, gear belts, and chain-related products. The company sells its portfolio of bearings, including tapered, spherical and cylindrical roller bearings, and thrust and ball bearings, through a network of authorised dealers to end users or directly to original equipment manufacturers. End-market sectors include general industrial, automotive, rail, energy, heavy truck, defense, agriculture, metals, mining, civil aerospace, construction, pulp and paper, and cement industries. Its segments are Mobile Industries and Process industries. Timken generates its revenue in the United States of America.

Executives

Philip D. Fracassa	officer: CFO	1835 DUEBER AVENUE SW, CANTON OH 44706-0928
Christopher A Coughlin	officer: President-proc ind & supp chn	1835 DUEBER AVE SW, CANTON OH 44706
Timken John M Jr	director	200 MARKET AVE N STE 210, CANTON OH 44702
Hansal N. Patel	officer: VP, GC, and Secretary	4500 MOUNT PLEASANT ST. NW, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Richard G Kyle	officer: President-mob ind & aerospace	1835 DUEBER AVE SW, CANTON OH 44706
Jacqueline F Woods	director
Natasha Pollock	officer: VP - Human Resources	4500 MT. PLEASANT ST. NW, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Landin Bo Hans Olof	officer: Group Vice President	4500 MT. PLEASANT ST. NW, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Timken Ward J Jr	director, officer: Chairman of the Board	200 MARKET AVE N STE 210, CANTON OH 44702
Ronald J Myers	officer: VP - Human Resources	4500 MT. PLEASANT ST. NW, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Sarah C Lauber	director	833 EAST MICHIGAN STREET, SUITE 900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Shelly Marie Chadwick	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	6070 PARKLAND BLVD, MAYFIELD HTS. OH 44124
Karl Andreas Roellgen	officer: VP - Europe, Asia and Africa	4500 MT. PLEASANT ST. NW, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Frank C Sullivan	director
Elizabeth Ann Harrell	director	4500 MT. PLEASANT ST. NW, NORTH CANTON OH 44720