Theseus Pharmaceuticals (Theseus Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Theseus Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Theseus Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Theseus Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Theseus Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Theseus Pharmaceuticals (Theseus Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Theseus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:THRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

245 Main Street, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

https://www.theseusrx.com

Theseus Pharmaceuticals Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on improving the lives of cancer patients through the discovery, development and commercialization of transformative targeted therapies. The company's development programs are designed to address drug resistance mutations in key driver oncogenes, which are mutated genes that cause cancer.

Executives

Orbimed Advisors Llc	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Carl L Gordon	director, 10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Foresite Capital Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 4500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Hayden Donald J Jr	director	C/O AMICUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 1 CEDAR BROOK DRIVE, CRANBURY NJ 08512
Bradford D. Dahms	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O SELECTA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 480 ARSENAL WAY, WATERTOWN MA 02472
Timothy P Clackson	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Steven H Stein	director	1801 AUGUSTINE CUT-OFF, WILMINGTON DE 19803
Foresite Capital Opportunity Management V, Llc	10 percent owner	900 LARKSPUR LANDING CIRCLE, SUITE 150, LARKSPUR CA 94939
Foresite Capital Opportunity Fund V, L.p.	10 percent owner	600 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 4500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Foresite Capital Management V, Llc	10 percent owner	900 LARKSPUR LANDING CIRCLE, SUITE 150, LARKSPUR CA 94939
James B. Tananbaum	10 percent owner	3052 PACIFIC AVENUE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94115
William Shakespeare	officer: See Remarks	245 MAIN STREET, 2ND FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Rock Springs Capital Master Fund Lp	10 percent owner	190 ELGIN AVENUE, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1 9001
Omega Fund Vi Gp Manager, Ltd.	10 percent owner	888 BOYLSTON STREET, SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199
Orbimed Capital Gp Vii Llc	10 percent owner	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022