Territorial Bancorp (Territorial Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Territorial Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Territorial Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Territorial Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Territorial Bancorp (Territorial Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Territorial Bancorp Inc (NAS:TBNK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1003 Bishop Street, Suite 500, Pauahi Tower, Honolulu, HI, USA, 96813

Website

https://www.territorialsavings.net

Territorial Bancorp Inc operates as a bank holding company. It offers a wide variety of FDIC-insured deposit products and loan products for the consumer and small businesses. Its business consists primarily of accepting deposits from the general public and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations and borrowings, in one-to four-family residential mortgage loans and investment securities. Its loan segment portfolio consists of Residential Mortgage; Construction, Commercial, and Other Mortgage Loans; Home Equity loans & line of credit; and Consumer & others.

Executives

Troy Yoshimasu	officer: Sr. VP/Chief Lending Officer	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Jan Sam	director	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Vernon Hirata	officer: Vice Chairman & Co-COO, other: Gen. Counsel & Secretary	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Ralph Y Nakatsuka	officer: Vice Chairman & Co-COO	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Howard Y Ikeda	director	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Allan S Kitagawa	director, officer: Chairman, President and CEO	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
David S Murakami	director	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
John M Ohama	director	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Kirk W Caldwell	director	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Jennifer Isobe	director	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Richard I Murakami	director	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Francis E. Tanaka	director	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Melvin M Miyamoto	officer: SVP and Treasurer	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Richard Kc Lau	officer: SVP	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813
Karen J Cox	officer: SVP	1132 BISHOP STREET, SUITE 2200, HONOLULU HI 96813