Translate Bio (Translate Bio) Predictability Rank

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What is Translate Bio Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Translate Bio Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Translate Bio (Translate Bio) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Translate Bio Inc (NAS:TBIO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

29 Hartwell Avenue, Lexington, MA, USA, 02421

Website

http://www.translate.bio

Translate Bio Inc is a clinical-stage mRNA therapeutics company developing a new class of potentially transformative medicines to treat diseases caused by protein or gene dysfunction. The company is developing MRT5005, for the treatment of cystic fibrosis (CF) and MRT5201, for the treatment of ornithine transcarbamylase (OTC) deficiency.

Executives

Jean Francois Formela	director	C/O ATLAS VENTURE, 890 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Renaud Ronald C Jr	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer, other: President	C/O IDENIX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 60 HAMPSHIRE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02109
Paul D. Burgess	officer: Chief Operating Officer, CLO, other: Secretary	C/O TRANSLATE BIO, INC., 29 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Owen Hughes	director	C/O RADIUS HEALTH, INC., 201 BROADWAY, 6TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02139
Shire Human Genetic Therapies, Inc.	10 percent owner	300 SHIRE WAY LEXINGTON MA 02421
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd	10 percent owner	1-1, NIHONBASHI-HONCHO 2-CHOME, CHUO-KU, TOKYO M0 103-8668
Baupost Group Gp, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	10 ST. JAMES AVENUE, SUITE 1700, BOSTON MA 02116
Seth A Klarman	10 percent owner	10 ST JAMES AVENUE, STE 1700, BOSTON MA 02116
Baupost Group Llc/ma	10 percent owner	10 ST JAMES AVE, SUITE 1700, BOSTON MA 02116
George Demetri	director	BLUEPRINT MEDICINES CORP., 215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 340/350, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Daniella Beckman	director	C/O IDENIX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., ONE KENDALL SQUARE, BLDG. 1400, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Robert M Plenge	director	C/O TRANSLATE BIO, INC., 29 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Daniel Lynch	director
Robert J. Meyer	director	2505 MERIDIAN PARKWAY, C/O CHIMERIX, INC, SUITE 100, DURHAM NC 27713
Ann Barbier	officer: Chief Medical Officer	255 STATE STREET, C/O PIERIS PHARMACEUTICALS,INC., BOSTON MA 02109