TrueBlue (TrueBlue) Predictability Rank

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What is TrueBlue Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

TrueBlue Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

TrueBlue Predictability Rank Related Terms

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TrueBlue (TrueBlue) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » TrueBlue Inc (NYSE:TBI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1015 A Street, Tacoma, WA, USA, 98402

Website

https://www.trueblue.com

TrueBlue Inc is a provider of staffing and workforce management solutions. The company's reportable segments include PeopleReady offers industrial staffing services. PeopleManagement offers contingent and productivity-based on-site industrial staffing services and PeopleScout offers recruitment process outsourcing, talent advisory services, and managed service provider services. It generates maximum revenue from the PeopleReady segment.

Executives

Kim Harris Jones	director	THREE LAKES DRIVE, NORTHFIELD IL 60093
Sonita Lontoh	director	C/O SUNRUN INC., 225 BUSH STREET, SUITE 1400, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Robert C. Kreidler	director	1390 ENCLAVE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77077
Richard P. Betori	officer: EVP; President - PeopleScout	1015 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402
Taryn R Owen	officer: EVP,President - PeopleScout	1015 A ST, TACOMA WA 98402
Kristi A Savacool	director	100 HALF DAY ROAD, LINCOLNSHIRE IL 60069
Paul G Reitz	director	1301 FIRST AVENUE, COLUMBUS GA 31901
Carl Schweihs	officer: EVP, President - PeopleMgmt	1015 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402
Kristy A. Fitzsimmons-willis	officer: EVP; President - PeopleReady	1015 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402
Garrett Ferencz	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer	1015 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402
William C. Goings	director	1015 A ST, TACOMA WA 98402
Derrek Lane Gafford	officer: EVP and CFO	1015 A STREET, P.O. BOX 2910, TACOMA WA 98402
Richard Christensen	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	1015 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402
Steven C Cooper	director	PO BOX 2910, TACOMA WA 98401-2910
A. Patrick Beharelle	officer: CEO	1015 A STREET, TACOMA WA 98402