State Street (State Street) Predictability Rank

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What is State Street Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

State Street Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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State Street (State Street) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » State Street Corporation (NYSE:STT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

STTpG.PFD:USA STTpD.PFD:USA STT:Mexico ZYA:Germany ZYA:Germany ZYA:Germany S1TT34:Brazil STT:Austria

Address

One Lincoln Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02111

Website

https://www.statestreet.com

State Street is a leading provider of financial services, including investment servicing, investment management, and investment research and trading. With approximately $42 trillion in assets under custody and administration and $4.1 trillion assets under management as of Dec. 31, 2023, State Street operates globally in more than 100 geographic markets and employs more than 46,000 worldwide.

Executives

Louis D Maiuri	officer: Executive Vice President	STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111
Michael L Richards	officer: EVP and Chief Admin Officer	STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111
Eric W. Aboaf	officer: Executive Vice President	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 600 WASHINGTON BLVD., STAMFORD CT 06901
Ian Appleyard	officer: EVP, CAO and Global Controller	STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111
Yie-hsin Hung	officer: EVP; President and CEO of SSGA	30 HUDSON STREET, JERSEY CITY NJ 07302
Donna Demaio	director	175 WATER STREET, NEW YORK NY 10038
Francisco Aristeguieta	officer: EVP; CEO State Street Int'l	388 GREENWICH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Andrew Erickson	officer: Executive Vice President	STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111
Cyrus Taraporevala	officer: EVP; President and CEO of SSGA	STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111
Saint-aignan Patrick De	director	27 RICHMOND ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM08
W. Bradford Hu	officer: Executive Vice President	388 GREENWICH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
David C Phelan	officer: EVP and General Counsel	STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111
Julio A Portalatin	director	C/O MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
John B Rhea	director	C/O INVITATION HOMES INC., 1717 MAIN STREET, SUITE 2000, DALLAS TX 75201
Andrew P Kuritzkes	officer: EVP and Chief Risk Officer	STATE STREET CORPORATION, ONE LINCOLN STREET, BOSTON MA 02111