Questar (Questar) Predictability Rank

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What is Questar Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Questar Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Questar (Questar) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Questar Corp (NYSE:STR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.questar.com

Questar Corporation is an integrated natural gas holding company with three lines of business operated through wholly owned subsidiaries: Wexpro Company, Questar Pipeline and Questar Gas. Questar Gas distributes natural gas as a public utility in Utah, southwestern Wyoming and a small portion of southeastern Idaho. Questar Gas has the necessary regulatory approvals to serve the areas and has long-term franchises granted by communities and counties within its service area. Questar Gas currently does not face direct competition from other distributors of natural gas for residential and commercial customers in its service territory. Wexpro develops, produces and delivers natural gas from cost-of-service reserves for gas utility affiliate Questar Gas under the terms of the Wexpro Agreement and the Wexpro II Agreement (Wexpro agreements), comprehensive agreements with the states of Utah and Wyoming. Wexpro delivers natural gas production to Questar Gas at cost of service. Wexpro's properties are located in the Rocky Mountain region, in the Vermillion, Pinedale, Moxa Arch, and Uinta Basin producing fields. Wexpro faces competition in its business, including the marketing of oil and NGL, and obtaining goods, services and labor. Questar Pipeline provides natural gas transportation and underground-storage services in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado. Questar Pipeline and its subsidiaries operate 2,667 miles of interstate pipeline, including 10 miles owned by a third party. Questar Pipeline's core transportation system is strategically located near large reserves of natural gas in six Rocky Mountain producing areas. Questar Pipeline transports natural gas from these producing areas to other pipeline systems, Questar Gas's distribution system and other utility systems. In addition to this core system, Questar Pipeline, through wholly-owned subsidiaries, owns and operates the Overthrust Pipeline in southwestern Wyoming and the eastern segment of Southern Trails Pipeline, a 487-mile line that extends from the Blanco hub in New Mexico's San Juan Basin to just inside the California state line near the Arizona border. An additional 96miles of Southern Trails Pipeline in California is not in service.

Executives

Harris H Simmons	director	ZIONS BANCORPORATION, ONE MAIN STREET, SUITE 1134, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Laurence M Downes	director	C/O NEW JERSEY RESOURCES CORPORATION, 1415 WYCKOFF ROAD, WALL NJ 07719
Ron W Jibson	officer: President & CEO	180 EAST 100 SOUTH, P.O. BOX 45360, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84145-0433
Rebecca Ranich	director	333 S STATE STREET, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84145-0433
Micheal G. Dunn	officer: EVP & President, QPC	333 SOUTH STATE STREET, 333 SOUTH STATE STREET UT 84145-0433
Christopher A Helms	director	MPLX LP, 200 E. HARDIN STREET, FINDLAY OH 45840
Teresa Beck	director	1681 SOUTH MOHAWK WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
J T Mcmanus	director	605 RICHARD ARRINGTON JR BLVD N, BIRMINGHAM AL 35203-2707
Bruce A Williamson	director	C/O SOUTHCROSS ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P., 1717 MAIN STREET, SUITE 5200, DALLAS TX 75201
R D Cash	director	5201 18TH PLACE, LUBBOCK TX 79416
Keith O Rattie	director	180 EAST 100 SOUTH, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84111
Gary G Michael	director	P. O. BOX 1718, BOISE ID 83701
L Richard Flury	director	2000 W SAM HOUSTON PKWY S, SUITE 2000, HOUSTON TX 77042
Mckee Robert E Iii	director	14927 SANDALFOOT, HOUSTON TX 77095
Charles B Stanley	director, officer: EVP / COO	6500 NORTH MINERAL DRIVE, COEUR D'ALENE ID 83815-9408