What is Stericycle Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Stericycle Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Stericycle (Stericycle) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
2355 Waukegan Road, Bannockburn, IL, USA, 60015
Stericycle is the largest provider of medical waste disposal and data destruction (primarily paper shredding) services in the United States. Its next closest national competitor in the medical waste disposal space is Sharps Compliance, which generated $76 million of sales in fiscal 2021 before its 2022 acquisition (about 4% of Stericycle's global regulated waste and compliance revenue). Stericycle's data destruction business (Shred-It) is about twice the size of its closest competitor (Iron Mountain's information destruction segment). Stericycle has a global presence, with about 20% of its revenue earned outside North America.
Executives
| Joseph Anthony Reuter |
officer: EVP & Chief People Officer |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| Victoria L Dolan |
director |
C/O COLGATE-PALMOLIVE COMPANY, 300 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Naren K Gursahaney |
director |
1501 YAMATO ROAD, BOCA RATON FL 33431 |
| White Stephen Cory |
officer: EVP C&RS |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| Daniel Ginnetti |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| David W. Stahl |
officer: EVP and CIO |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| James L Welch |
director |
5550 SW MACADAM AVENUE, SUITE 200, PORTLAND OR 97239 |
| James J Martell |
director |
314 RINGLING POINT DRIVE, SARASOTA FL 34234 |
| Janet Zelenka |
officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| Dominic Culotta |
officer: EVP Engineering |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| Mark C Miller |
officer: CEO |
C/O STERICYCLE INC., 28161 N KEITH DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Stephen C Hooley |
director |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| Hackney Jesse Joel Jr |
director |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
| William J. Seward |
officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer |
28161 N. KEITH DRIVE, LAKE FOREST IL 60045 |
| Richard Michael Moore |
officer: EVP North America Operations |
2355 WAUKEGAN ROAD, BANNOCKBURN IL 60015 |
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