SunPower (SunPower) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2005. Start your Free Trial

What is SunPower Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SunPower Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

SunPower Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of SunPower's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

SunPower (SunPower) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » SunPower Corp (NAS:SPWR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

S9P2:Germany S9P2:Germany

Address

51 Rio Robles, San Jose, CA, USA, 95134

Website

https://www.sunpower.com

SunPower is a leading solar technology and energy services provider that offers fully integrated solar, storage, and home energy solutions to customers primarily in the United States and Canada through an array of hardware, software, and financing options and smart energy solutions. The company's sales channels include a network of both installing and noninstalling dealers and resellers that operate in residential and commercial markets as well as a group of in-house sales teams in each segment engaged in direct sales to end customers.

Executives

Elizabeth Lynne Eby	officer: EVP, CFO	1414 HARBOUR WAY SOUTH, SUITE 1901, RICHMOND CA 94804
Jennifer Johnston	officer: EVP, Chief Operating Officer	1414 HARBOUR WAY SOUTH, SUITE 1901, RICHMOND CA 94804
Audrey Zibelman	director	1414 HARBOUR WAY SOUTH, SUITE 1901, RICHMOND CA 94804
Steve Louden	director	C/O ROKU, INC., 150 WINCHESTER CIRCLE, LOS GATOS CA 95032
Vichheka Heang	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	77 RIO ROBLES, C/O SUNPOWER CORPORATION, SAN JOSE CA 95134
June Sauvaget	officer: EVP, Chief Marketing Officer	1414 HARBOUR WAY SOUTH, SUITE 1901, RICHMOND CA 94804
Eileen Evans	officer: EVP, Chief Legal Officer	3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Nathaniel Anschuetz	director	C/O GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Jonathan Bram	director	C/O GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Guthrie Dundas	officer: Interim CFO	1414 HARBOUR WAY SOUTH, SUITE 1901, RICHMOND CA 94804
Gip Iii Sol Holdings, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Global Infrastructure Investors Iii, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Global Infrastructure Gp Iii, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner	C/O GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE PARTNERS, 1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Gip Iii Sol Acquisition, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Totalenergies Gestion Usa Sarl	10 percent owner	LA DEFENSE 6 2 PLACE JEAN MILLIER, COURBEVOIE, HAUTS-DE-SEINE I0 92400