Sonoco Products Co (Sonoco Products Co) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1995. Start your Free Trial

What is Sonoco Products Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sonoco Products Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Sonoco Products Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Sonoco Products Co's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Sonoco Products Co (Sonoco Products Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Sonoco Products Co (NYSE:SON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SNS:Germany

Address

1 N. Second Street, Hartsville, SC, USA, 29550

Website

http://www.sonoco.com

Over its 100-year-plus history, Sonoco Products has steadily assembled a diverse portfolio of industrial and consumer packaging product offerings such as flexible and rigid plastics, reels and spools, pallets, and composite cans. The company serves a variety of consumer and industrial end markets throughout North America. Sonoco has raised its dividend each year for more than 30 years.

Executives

Sean Cairns	officer: Pres Global Rigid Paper&Closur	1 N 2ND ST, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Haynes Ernest D Iii	officer: VP, Rigid Paper Containers, NA	1 NORTH 2ND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Hill Robert R Jr	director	C/O SCBT FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 520 GERVAIS STREET, COLUMBIA SC 29201
Steven L Boyd	director	1 NORTH 2ND ST, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Shawn B Munday	officer: VP, Glbl Mergers & ACQ	1 N 2ND ST, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Aditya Gandhi	officer: CAO	1 NORTH SECOND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Rodger D Fuller	officer: DIV VP & GENERAL MANAGER - CPD	C/O SONOCO PRODUCTS COMPANY, 1 N. SECOND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Anne Marie Lopiccolo	officer: VP, Global Human Resources	1 N 2ND ST, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Elizabeth J Rhue	officer: VP Global Envir&Sustainability	1 N. 2ND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Julie C Albrecht	officer: VP, Treasurer/Assistant CFO	ONE NORTH SECOND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Lisa K Weeks	officer: Staff VP Investor Relations	56 SOUTH ROCKFORD DRIVE, TEMPE AZ 85281
Cummings Harold G Iii	officer: Staff VP,Treasurer	ONE NORTH SECOND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Russell K Grissett	officer: VP, Global Flexible Packaging	1 NORTH 2ND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Jeffrey S Tomaszewski	officer: VP - Global RPC, D&P, Paper	1 N 2ND ST, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
John M Florence	officer: Corporate Attorney	ONE NORTH SECOND STREET, HARTSVILLE SC 29550