What is Selective Insurance Group Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Selective Insurance Group Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Selective Insurance Group (Selective Insurance Group) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
40 Wantage Avenue, Branchville, NJ, USA, 07890
Selective Insurance Group Inc is a regional property-casualty insurer based in New Jersey, with its operations focused in the New York metropolitan area. Since 1977, Selective has focused its sales efforts on small businesses, offering commercial products that include workers' compensation, general liability, property, and auto insurance. Selective also has a small personal insurance segment (under 20% of total premiums), selling auto and homeowner's coverage.
Executives
| John J. Marchioni |
officer: EVP, Chief Field Ops Officer |
40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE X1 07890 |
| Jeffrey F. Kamrowski |
officer: EVP, MUSIC |
40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| Joseph Eppers |
officer: EVP, Chief Investment Officer |
40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| Anthony D. Harnett |
officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer |
40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| Cynthia S Nicholson |
director |
40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| Wole C Coaxum |
director |
40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| Brenda M Hall |
officer: EVP, CL Chief Op Officer |
40 WANTAGE AVE., BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| Vincent M Senia |
officer: EVP, Chief Actuary |
40 WANTAGE AVE., BRANCHVILLE NJ 07461 |
| John Burville |
director |
ACE LTD, ACE BLDG 30 WOODBOURNE AVE HAMILTON BER |
| Michael J. Morrissey |
director |
40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE X1 07890 |
| J Brian Thebault |
director |
40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| Gregory E Murphy |
director, officer: Chairman, Chief Executive Offi |
40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| Michael H Lanza |
officer: Sr. VP and General Counsel |
40 WANTAGE AVENUE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| Paul Kush |
officer: EVP, Chief Claims Officer |
40 WANTAGE AVE., BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
| William M Rue |
director |
40 WANTAGE AVE, BRANCHVILLE NJ 07890 |
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