Service International (Service International) Predictability Rank

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What is Service International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Service International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Service International (Service International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Personal Services » Service Corp International (NYSE:SCI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SVC:Germany SVC:Germany

Address

1929 Allen Parkway, Houston, TX, USA, 77019

Website

https://www.sci-corp.com

Service Corp International is a personal services company that provides funeral and cemetery services and products from its locations throughout the United States and Canada. The company segments its operations into funeral service and cemetery business functions. At its funeral service locations, Service Corp. provides all professional services, facilities, vehicles, and merchandise related to funerals and cremations. Cemetery locations provide cemetery property, memorial markers, and graveyard services to customers. Service Corp. derives the majority of its revenue from its funeral locations, while the cemetery division also generates a significant amount of the company's total income. Geographically, the company gets a major share of revenue from the United States.

Executives

John H Faulk	officer: Vice Pres Business Development	1929 ALLEN PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77019
Elisabeth G. Nash	officer: V.P. Processes & Technology	1929 ALLEN PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77019
Tony Coelho	director	C/O PINNACLE GLOBAL GROUP, 5599 SAN FELIPE #1212, HOUSTON TX 77056
Thomas L Ryan	officer: President,Chief Operating Off.	1929 ALLEN PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77219
Lori Spilde	officer: Sr. V.P. and General Counsel	1929 ALLEN PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77019
Steven A Tidwell	officer: V.P. Main Street Operations	1929 ALLEN PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77019
Buckwalter Alan R Iii	director
Eric D Tanzberger	officer: VP, Corporate Controller	1929 ALLEN PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77219
Jakki L. Haussler	director	221 EAST FOURTH STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Ellen Ochoa	director	1929 ALLEN PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77019
Gregory T Sangalis	officer: Sr. V.P. and General Counsel	46 HIBURY DRIVE, HOUSTON TX 77024
Waring Sumner J Iii	officer: VP Western Operations	1929 ALLEN PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77219
C Park Shaper	director	1001 LOUISIANA, STE 1000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Victor L Lund	director	ONE RAVINIA DRIVE, STE 1500, ATLANTA GA 30346
Marcus A Watts	director