Sinclair (Sinclair) Predictability Rank

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What is Sinclair Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sinclair Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sinclair (Sinclair) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » Sinclair Inc (NAS:SBGI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10706 Beaver Dam Road, Hunt Valley, MD, USA, 21030

Website

https://www.sbgi.net

Sinclair Broadcast Group is the second-largest television station operator in the U.S., with 185 stations in 86 markets. Of the firm's roughly 600 channels, 150 are affiliated with the four national broadcasters—Fox, ABC, CBS, and NBC—with over 80 other channels on networks aligned with The CW (Nexstar) and MyNetworkTV (Fox). The firm also owns the Tennis Channel and four multicast networks. Via the 2019 purchase of the Fox regional sports networks from Disney, Sinclair is now the largest owner of Diamond Sports, which operates regional sports networks. Diamond Sports sought bankruptcy protection in early 2023.

Executives

David B Gibber	officer: SVP & General Counsel	10706 BEAVER DAM ROAD, HUNT VALLEY MD 21030
Howard E Friedman	director	6201 GREEN MEADOW WAY, BALTIMORE MD 21209
Jeffrey Edward Lewis	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	10706 BEAVER DAM ROAD, HUNT VALLEY MD 21030
Benjamin Sr Carson	director	PO BOX 3599, BATTLE CREEK MI 49016-3599
Lawrence E Mccanna	director	36 S CHARLES ST, STE 1800, BALTIMORE MD 21201
Frederick G Smith	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Vice President	10706 BEAVER DAM RD, COCKEYSVILLE MD 21030
J Duncan Smith	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Secretary	10706 BEAVER DAM RD, COCKEYSVILLE MD 21030
Laurie R Beyer	director	6331 FALCONWOOD STREET, MIDDLE RIVER MD 21220
David D Smith	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	C/O SINCLAIR BROADCAST GROUP, 2000 WEST 41ST ST, BALTIMORE MD 21211-1420
Justin Leroy Bray	officer: VP & Treasurer	10706 BEAVER DAM ROAD, HUNT VALLEY MD 21030
David R Bochenek	officer: Controller and CAO	10706 BEAVER DAM ROAD, COCKEYSVILLE MD 21030
Barry Faber	officer: Vice President-General Counsel	10706 BEAVER DAM ROAD, COCKEYSVILLE MD 21203
Lucy Rutishauser	officer: Treasurer and VP Corp. Finance	10706 BEAVER DAM RD, COCKEYSVILLE MD 21203
Daniel C Keith	director	102 W PENNSYLVANIA AVE, STE 501, TOWSON MD 21204
Benson E Legg	director	393 SILVER MOSS DRIVE, VERO BEACH FL 32963