Saia (SAIA) Predictability Rank

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What is Saia Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Saia Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Saia Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Saia (SAIA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Saia Inc (NAS:SAIA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SQR:Germany SQR:Germany

Address

11465 Johns Creek Parkway, Suite 400, Johns Creek, GA, USA, 30097

Website

https://www.saia.com

Saia ranks among the 10 largest less-than-truckload carriers in the United States, with more than 190 facilities and a fleet of about 6,200 tractors and 20,800 trailers. As a national LTL carrier, the firm offers time-definite and expedited options for shipments ranging between 100 and 10,000 pounds. Saia ranks among the top-tier providers in terms of profitability.

Executives

Di-ann Eisnor	director	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Raymond R Ramu	officer: Chief Customer Officer	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Patrick D Sugar	officer: EVP Operations	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Holzgrefe Frederick J Iii	officer: VP Finance, CFO and Secretary	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Douglas L Col	officer: VP Finance, CFO	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Susan F Ward	director	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Donna E Epps	director	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Richard D Odell	officer: President & CEO of Saia	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, STE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Anthony R Norwood	officer: EVP & CHRO	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Kelly W Benton	officer: VP & Controller	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Rohit Lal	officer: VP Information Technology, CIO	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Kevin A Henry	director	13024 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, HARRIS BUILDING, SUITE 900, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Donald R James	director	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Karla J Staver	officer: VP Safety and Human Resources	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097
Stephanie R Maschmeier	officer: Controller	11465 JOHNS CREEK PARKWAY, SUITE 400, JOHNS CREEK GA 30097