Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (Regeneron Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (Regeneron Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:REGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

REGN:Mexico RGO:Germany RGO:Germany REGN34:Brazil

Address

777 Old Saw Mill River Road, Tarrytown, NY, USA, 10591-6707

Website

https://www.regeneron.com

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals discovers, develops, and commercializes products that fight eye disease, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and inflammation. The company has several marketed products, including Eylea, approved for wet age-related macular degeneration and other eye diseases; Praluent for LDL cholesterol lowering; Dupixent in immunology; Libtayo in oncology; and Kevzara in rheumatoid arthritis. Regeneron is also developing monoclonal and bispecific antibodies with Sanofi, other collaborators, and independently, and has earlier-stage partnerships that bring new technology to the pipeline, including RNAi (Alnylam) and CRISPR-based gene editing (Intellia).

Executives

Bonnie L Bassler	director	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Arthur F Ryan	director	CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP, INC, 600 WASHINGTON BOULEVARD, STAMFORD CT 06901
George Yancopoulos	director, officer: President and CSO	777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Huda Y Zoghbi	director	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Marion Mccourt	officer: SVP Commercial	C/O AXOVANT SCIENCES, INC., 320 WEST 37TH STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10018
Michael S Brown	director
Christopher R. Fenimore	officer: VP, Controller	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Andrew J Murphy	officer: EVP Research	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Kathryn Guarini	director	777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
David P Schenkein	director	C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Van Plew Daniel P	officer: EVP & General Mgr Industrial O	REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Robert E Landry	officer: SVP Fin, Dep CFO	777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Christine A Poon	director	C/O JOHNSON & JOHNSON, ONE JOHNSON PLAZA, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08933
Neil Stahl	officer: SVP, Preclinical Development	777 OLD SAW MILL RIVER ROAD, TARRYTOWN NY 10591
Joseph L Goldstein	director	DEPT OF PHARMACOLOGY K5 YUVER OF TEXAS, 5323 HARRY HINES BLVD, DALLAS TX 75390