Pool (POOL) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1995. Start your Free Trial

What is Pool Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pool Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Pool Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Pool's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Pool (POOL) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Distribution » Pool Corp (NAS:POOL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

POOL:Mexico SP1:Germany SP1:Germany

Address

109 Northpark Boulevard, Covington, LA, USA, 70433-5001

Website

https://www.poolcorp.com

Pool Corp distributes swimming pool supplies and related products. It sells national-brand and private-label products to approximately 120000 customers. The products include non-discretionary pool-maintenance products, like chemicals and replacement parts, as well as pool equipment, like packaged pools (kits to build swimming pools), cleaners, filters, heaters, pumps, and lights. Customers include pool builders and remodelers, independent retail stores, and pool repair and service companies.

Executives

Kristopher Robert Neff	officer: Vice President, Strategy & Cor	429 HAMPTON TERRACE, LIBERTYVILLE IL 60048
Jennifer M Neil	officer: Secretary	SCP POOL CORPORATION, 109 NORTHPARK BLVD, COVINGTON LA 70433
Walker Saik	officer: Corporate Controller	5202 CHESTNUT ST, NEW ORLEANS LA 70115
Ilya Mihaly	officer: Vice President - Operations &	10703 BEAGLE RUN PL, TAMPA FL 33626
James D Hope	director	1390 ENCLAVE PARKWAY, HOUSTON TX 77077
Hart Melanie Housey	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	POOL CORPORATION, 109 NORTHPARK BLVD, COVINGTON LA 70433
Carlos A. Sabater	director	1140 ALFONSO AVENUE, CORAL GABLES FL 33146
Peter D Arvan	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	2537 ST. JAMES DRIVE, UNIT 507, SOUTHPORT NC 28461
Martha S Gervasi	director	610 BOWSPRIT LANE, LONGBOAT KEY FL 34228
Perez De La Mesa Manuel J	director, officer: President/CEO
Robert C Sledd	director	9201 FOREST HILL AVENUE, RICHMOND VA 23235
Mark W Joslin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	SCP POOL CORPORATION, 109 NORTHPARK BLVD, COVINGTON LA 70433
St Romain Kenneth G	officer: Group Vice President	POOL CORPORATION, 109 NORTHPARK BLVD, COVINGTON LA 70433
David B. Collier	officer: VP OPERATIONS & SUPPLY CHAIN	720 EVENING STAR LN, CASTLE ROCK CO 80108
Arthur D Cook	officer: Vice President