Packaging of America (Packaging of America) Predictability Rank

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What is Packaging of America Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Packaging of America Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Packaging of America Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Packaging of America (Packaging of America) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Packaging & Containers » Packaging Corp of America (NYSE:PKG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PKA:Germany PKA:Germany

Address

1 North Field Court, Lake Forest, IL, USA, 60045

Website

https://www.packagingcorp.com

Packaging Corp of America is the third-largest containerboard and corrugated packaging manufacturer in the United States. It produces over 4 million tons of containerboard annually. The company's share of the domestic containerboard market is roughly 10%. The firm differentiates itself from larger competitors by focusing on smaller customers and operating with a high degree of flexibility.

Executives

Paul T Stecko	director, officer: Chairman/Chief Exec. Officer
Kent A. Pflederer	officer: VP, Gen. Counsel & Sec.	PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA, 1955 W. FIELD CT., LAKE FOREST IL 60645
Donald R. Shirley	officer: SVP	1 N. FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Bruce A Ridley	officer: SVP	1 N. FIELD CT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Robert Andrew Schneider	officer: SVP & CIO	1 N. FIELD CT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Thomas A Hassfurther	officer: Senior VP-Sales & Marketing	C/O PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA, 1900 WEST FIELD COURT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Charles J. Carter	officer: VP-Containerboard	1900 W. FIELD CT., LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Robert P. Mundy	officer: SVP	6775 LENOX CENTER COURT, SUITE 400, MEMPHIS TN 38115
Donna A. Harman	director	PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA, 1 N. FIELD CT., LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Darla J. Olivier	officer: SVP	1 N. FIELD CT., LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Walton Thomas W.h.	officer: SVP	C/O PACKAGING CORPORATION OF AMERICA, 1900 W. FIELD CT., LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Jeffrey S Kaser	officer: SVP	1 N FIELD CT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Robert C Lyons	director	500 WEST MONROE ST, CHICAGO IL 60661
Pamela A. Barnes	officer: SVP	1 N. FIELD CT, LAKE FOREST IL 60045
Samuel M Mencoff	director, 10 percent owner	BUCKEYE TECHNOLOGIES INC, 1001 TILLMAN STREET, MEMPHIS TN 38112