Pfizer (Pfizer) Predictability Rank

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What is Pfizer Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pfizer Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pfizer (Pfizer) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PFE:Peru PFE:Mexico PFE_KZ:Kazakhstan 1PFE:Italy PFEd:UK 0Q1N:UK PFEB:Germany PFE:Germany PFE:Germany PFE:Germany PFE:Germany PFE:Chile PFE:Canada PFIZ34:Brazil PFE:Austria PFE:Argentina

Address

66 Hudson Boulevard East, New York, NY, USA, 10001-2192

Website

https://www.pfizer.com

Pfizer is one of the world's largest pharmaceutical firms, with annual sales close to $50 billion (excluding COVID-19 product sales). While it historically sold many types of healthcare products and chemicals, now prescription drugs and vaccines account for the majority of sales. Top sellers include pneumococcal vaccine Prevnar 13, cancer drug Ibrance, and cardiovascular treatment Eliquis. Pfizer sells these products globally, with international sales representing close to 50% of total sales. Within international sales, emerging markets are a major contributor.

Executives

Scott Gottlieb	director	MOLECULAR INSIGHT PHARMACEUTICALS, 160 SECOND STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Christoffel Boshoff	officer: Executive Vice President	66 HUDSON BOULEVARD EAST, NEW YORK NY 10001-2192
Jennifer B. Damico	officer: SVP & Controller	C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Payal Sahni	officer: Executive Vice President	ATTN: PFIZER CORP. SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND ST., NEW YORK NY 10017
Carapezzi William R Jr	officer: Executive Vice President	600 MOUNTAIN AVENUE, MURRAY HILL NJ 07921
Douglas M Lankler	officer: Senior Vice President	PFIZER INC. ATTN: CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Mikael Dolsten	officer: Senior Vice President	5 GIRALDA FARMS, MADISON NJ 07940
David M Denton	officer: Chief Financial Officer & EVP	1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
William Pao	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Michael Mcdermott	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O PFIZER INC. CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, 235 EAST 42ND STREET NY 10017
Rady A Johnson	officer: Executive Vice President	PFIZER INC. ATTN CORP. SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Alexander R Mackenzie	officer: Executive Vice President	C/O PFIZER CORP. SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10017
Sally Susman	officer: Senior Vice President	767 FIFTH AVE, EOTIC LAWDER CORP, NEW YORK NY 10153
Angela Hwang	officer: Group President	235 EAST 42ND STREET, ATTN: CORPORATE SECRETARY, NEW YORK NY 10017
John D Young	officer: Business Unit President	C/O CORPORATE SECRETARY, 235 EAST 42ND ST., NEW YORK NY 10017