OGE Energy (OGE Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is OGE Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OGE Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

OGE Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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OGE Energy (OGE Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » OGE Energy Corp (NYSE:OGE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

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Traded in Other Exchanges

OG5:Germany

Address

321 North Harvey, P.O. Box 321, Oklahoma, OK, USA, 73101-0321

Website

https://www.ogeenergy.com

OGE Energy is a holding company for Oklahoma Gas & Electric, a regulated utility with electricity generation, transmission, and distribution to 900,000 customers in Oklahoma and western Arkansas. In December 2021, OGE divested its 25.5% stake in Enable Midstream Partners, an oil and gas services company it created in 2013 through a unit exchange merger with Energy Transfer. OGE sold its 95.4 million limited partner units of Energy Transfer throughout 2022. OGE sold is retail gas business in 1928 and no longer has any gas operations.

Executives

David L Hauser	director	704-731-1522, CHARLOTTE NC 28209-4674
Cathy R. Gates	director	C/O TEMPUR SEALY INTERNATIONAL, INC., 1000 TEMPUR WAY, LEXINGTON KY 40511
David E Rainbolt	director	C/O BANCFIRST CORP, 100 N BROADWAY, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73102
Whitfield Johnny W Jr	officer: VP Bus Intel, Supp Chain-OG&E	PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
Keith E Erickson	officer: VP Sales & Cust Oper (OG&E)	PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
Cristina F Mcquistion	officer: VP Process & Perf Improvement	P.O. BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
Patricia D Horn	officer: VP-Gov, Env; Corp Sec	PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
David A Parker	officer: VP- Tech, Data, Security-OG&E	PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
Kissam Luther C Iv	director	3801 BERESFORD ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28211
Christine Ostendorf Woodworth	officer: VP- Corp Com Brand & Marketing	C/O OGE ENERGY CORP., PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
J. Michael Sanner	director	3701 STONEHURST, JONES OK 73049
Scott A Briggs	officer: VP- Human Resources-OG&E	PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73103
Robert J Burch	officer: VP- Utility Technical Services	PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
Matthew J Schuermann	officer: VP- Power Supply Ops-OG&E	PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73101
William Bryan Buckler	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O OGE ENERGY CORP., PO BOX 321, OKLAHOMA CITY OK 73103