Old Dominion Freight Line (Old Dominion Freight Line) Predictability Rank

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What is Old Dominion Freight Line Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Old Dominion Freight Line Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Old Dominion Freight Line (Old Dominion Freight Line) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Old Dominion Freight Line Inc (NAS:ODFL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ODFL:Mexico ODF:Germany ODF:Germany O1DF34:Brazil

Address

500 Old Dominion Way, Thomasville, NC, USA, 27360

Website

https://www.odfl.com

Old Dominion Freight Line is the second-largest less than truckload carrier in the United States, with more than 250 service centers and 11,000-plus tractors. It is one of the most disciplined and efficient providers in the trucking industry, and its profitability and capital returns stand head and shoulders above its peers. Strategic initiatives revolve around increasing network density through market share gains and maintaining industry-leading service via steadfast infrastructure investment.

Executives

David S Congdon	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and COO	C/O OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC., 500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
Stith Thomas A. Iii	director	500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
Steven W. Hartsell	officer: SVP - Sales	500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
Andrew Stephen Davis	director	500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
Christopher James Kelley	officer: SVP - Operations	500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
Bradley R Gabosch	director	500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
David J. Bates	officer: SVP - Operations	C/O XPO, INC., FIVE AMERICAN LANE, GREENWICH CT 06831
Leo H Suggs	director	UNION PACIFIC CORP, 1416 DODGE ST, OMAHA NE 68179
D. Michael Wray	director	7205 PINETREE ROAD, RICHMOND VA 23229
Gregory B Plemmons	officer: SVP - Sales	500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
Wendy T. Stallings	director	500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
Earl E Congdon	director, officer: Chairman of the Board and CEO	C/O OLD DOMINION FREIGHT LINE, INC., 500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
Sherry A Aaholm	director	500 JACKSON STREET, COLUMBUS IN 47201
Christopher T Brooks	officer: SVP - Human Resources & Safety	500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360
Kimberly S Maready	officer: VP - Accounting & Fin. (PAO)	500 OLD DOMINION WAY, THOMASVILLE NC 27360