NiSource (NiSource) Predictability Rank

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What is NiSource Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

NiSource Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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NiSource (NiSource) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » NiSource Inc (NYSE:NI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

NIpB.PFD:USA NOU:Germany

Address

801 East 86th Avenue, Merrillville, IN, USA, 46410

Website

https://www.nisource.com

NiSource is one of the nation's largest natural gas distribution companies with approximately 3.2 million customers in Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. NiSource's electric utility transmits and distributes electricity in northern Indiana to about 500,000 customers. The regulated electric utility also owns more than 3,000 megawatts of generation capacity, including coal, natural gas, and renewable energy.

Executives

Michael E Jesanis	director	C/O NISOURCE INC., 801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Lloyd M Yates	director	1N 2ND ST, HARTSVILLE SC 29550
Melody Birmingham	officer: EVP & Chief Innovation Officer	550 S. TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Donald Eugene Brown	officer: Executive Vice President	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
William Jr. Jefferson	officer: EVP Operations & CSO	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Kimberly S Cuccia	officer: VP, Interim GC & Corp Sec	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Michael Luhrs	officer: EVP, Strategy & Risk & CCO	P.O. BOX 14720, MADISON WI 53708-0720
Melanie B. Berman	officer: SVP & CHRO	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
William D Johnson	director	77 BEALE ST, PO BOX 770000, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94177
Cassandra S. Lee	director	7615 ZIONSVILLE RD, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46268
Sondra L Barbour	director	6801 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20817
Eric L Butler	director	1400 DOUGLAS STREET, STOP 1210, OMAHA NE 68179
Daniel A Creekmur	officer: SVP & President, Gas Utilities	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Michael Hooper	officer: SVP and President, NIPSCO	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410
Pablo Vegas	officer: EVP & President Columbia Gas	801 E. 86TH AVENUE, MERRILLVILLE IN 46410