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Murphy Oil (Murphy Oil) Predictability Rank


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What is Murphy Oil Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Murphy Oil Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Murphy Oil Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Murphy Oil (Murphy Oil) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Murphy Oil Corp (NYSE:MUR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CHRD CIVI SM MTDR RRC SWN AR MGY NOG CRC COP HKSE:00883 TSX:CNQ EOG PXD OXY HES MIC:NVTK ASX:WDS FANG
Traded in Other Exchanges
MUR:Mexico MUQ:Germany
Address
9805 Katy Freeway, Suite G-200, Houston, TX, USA, 77024
Website
https://www.murphyoilcorp.com
Murphy Oil is an independent exploration and production company developing unconventional resources in the United States and Canada. At the end of 2022, the company reported net proved reserves of 697 million barrels of oil equivalent. Consolidated 62% oil and natural gas liquids and 38% natural gas.
Executives
Elisabeth W Keller director 300 PEACH ST., EL DORADO AR 71730
Robert Madison Murphy director 200 NORTH JEFFERSON SUITE 400, EL DODRADO AR 71730
John B Gardner officer: Treasurer 200 PEACH ST, EL DORADO AR 71730
Thomas J Mireles officer: Vice President 200 PEACH STREET, P O BOX 7000, EL DORADO AR 71730
Paul D. Vaughan officer: Vice President & Controller 9805 KATY FREEWAY G-200, HOUSTON TX 77024
Meenambigai Palanivelu officer: Vice President 9805 KATY FREEWAY G-200, HOUSTON TX 77024
Daniel R Hanchera officer: Senior Vice President 9805 KATY FREEWAY G-200, HOUSTON TX 77024
Eric M Hambly officer: Executive Vice President 300 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730
Roger W. Jenkins officer: Executive Vice President 200 PEACH STREET, P.O. BOX 7000, EL DORADO AR 71730
Kelly L Whitley officer: Vice President 200 PEACH ST., EL DORADO AR 71730
Louis W Utsch officer: Vice President 300 PEACH STREET, P.O. BOX 7000, EL DORADO AR 71730
Maria A Martinez officer: Vice President 300 PEACH STREET, EL DORADO AR 71730
T Jay Collins director C/O OCEANEERING INTERNATIONAL INC, 11911 FM 529, HOUSTON TX 77041-3011
Leyster L. Jumawan officer: Vice President & Treasurer 9805 KATY FREEWAY G-200, HOUSTON TX 77024
E Ted Botner officer: Secretary 200 PEACH ST, EL DORADO AR 71730