Altria Group (Altria Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Altria Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Altria Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Altria Group (Altria Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Tobacco Products » Altria Group Inc (NYSE:MO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MO:Mexico 1MO:Italy PHM7d:UK 0R31:UK PHM7:Germany PHM7:Germany PHM7:Germany PHM7:Germany MO:Chile MOOO34:Brazil ALTR:Austria MO:Argentina

Address

6601 West Broad Street, Richmond, VA, USA, 23230

Website

https://www.altria.com

Altria comprises Philip Morris USA, U.S. Smokeless Tobacco, John Middleton, Horizon Innovations and Helix Innovations. It holds a 10% interest in the world's largest brewer, Anheuser-Busch InBev. Through its tobacco subsidiaries, Altria holds the leading position in cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the United States and the number-two spot in machine-made cigars. The company's Marlboro brand is the leading cigarette brand in the U.S. with a 42% annual share in 2022. Altria holds a 42% stake in cannabis manufacturer Cronos, has acquired Njoy Holdings in 2023, and recently exited its strategic investment in Juul Labs.

Executives

Clarke Ian L.t.	director	6601 W BROAD ST, RICHMOND VA 23230
Robert Matthew Davis	director	6601 W. BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Jacinto J Hernandez	director	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Mario Max Yzaguirre	director	1515 WEST 190TH STREET, SUITE 275, GARDENA CA 90248
Marjorie Mary Connelly	director	2580 PALMER DR, KESWICK VA 22947
Ellen R Strahlman	director	ALTRIA GROUP, INC., 6601 W. BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Nabil Y Sakkab	director	6601 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Virginia E Shanks	director	4170 CAUGHLIN PARKWAY, RENO NV 89519
Casteen John T Iii	director	301 S. COLLEGE STREET, 30TH FLOOR, NC0630, CHARLOTTE NC 28288-0630
Kathryn B. Mcquade	director	6601 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Kiely W Leo Iii	director
Mark Newman	director	1011 WARRENVILLE ROAD, SUITE 600, LISLE IL 60532
Kelly Ennis Debra J	director	4405 A INTERNATIONAL BLVD, NORCROSS GA 30093
Surgner W Hildebrandt Jr	officer: VP, Corp. Sec'y & Assoc. GC	6601 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230
Daniel J Bryant	officer: Vice President & Treasurer	6601 WEST BROAD STREET, RICHMOND VA 23230