Manitex International (Manitex International) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2005. Start your Free Trial

What is Manitex International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Manitex International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Manitex International Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Manitex International's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Manitex International (Manitex International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery » Manitex International Inc (NAS:MNTX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

VE8:Germany

Address

9725 Industrial Drive, Bridgeview, IL, USA, 60455

Website

https://www.manitexinternational.com

Manitex International Inc through its subsidiaries is engaged in the design, manufacture, and distribution of engineered lifting solutions. Its products include boom trucks, truck cranes, and sign cranes. The company's segments include Lifting Equipment and Rental Equipment. It generates maximum revenue from the Lifting Equipment segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States.

Executives

David J Langevin	director, officer: Chairman of the Board & CEO	50120 PONTIAC TRAIL, WIXOM MI 48393
Takashi Kiso	director	9725 INDUSTRIAL DRIVE, BRIDGEVIEW IL 60466
Michael Coffey	officer: Chief Executive Officer	9725 INDUSTRIAL DRIVE, BRIDGEVIEW IL 60466
Joseph Doolan	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O APAC CUSTOMER SERVICES, INC., SIX PARKWAY NORTH, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Steve Filipov	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TEREX CORP, 500 POST RD, WESTPORT CT 06850
Marvin B Rosenberg	director	3228 PIGNATELLI CRESCENT, MOUNT PLEASANT SC 29466
Laura Ruoru Yu	officer: VP Finance & Corp. Controller	9725 INDUSTRIAL DRIVE, BRIDGEVIEW IL 60455
Robert S Gigliotti	director	901 WILSHIRE DR, STE 400, TROY MI 48084
Ingo Schiller	director	4242 WEST GREENS ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77066
Tadano Ltd.	10 percent owner	KO-34 SHINDEN-CHO, KAGAWA PREFECTURE, TAKAMATSU M0 761-0185
Sherman Jung	officer: VP Fin. Reporting (PFO/PAO)	9725 INDUSTRIAL DRIVE, BRIDGEVIEW IL 60455
Steve Kiefer	officer: President, North America	9725 INDUSTRIAL DRIVE, BRIDGEVIEW IL 60455
Michael Schneider	officer: SVP, CFO, Treas., & Secretary	9725 INDUSTRIAL DRIVE, BRIDGEVIEW IL 60455
Ronald Michael Clark	director	72 CATBRIER ROAD, WESTON CT 06883
Lubomir T. Litchev	officer: President, Manufacturing Ops.	10 HIGH MEADOW TRAIL, DILLON CO 80435