Marsh & McLennan (Marsh & McLennan) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Marsh & McLennan Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Marsh & McLennan (Marsh & McLennan) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Marsh & McLennan Companies Inc (NYSE:MMC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MMC:Mexico MSN:Germany MSN:Germany M1MC34:Brazil MMCO:Austria MMC:Argentina

Address

1166 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, USA, 10036-2774

Website

https://www.marshmclennan.com

Marsh McLennan is a professional services firm that provides advice and solutions in the areas of risk, strategy, and human capital. The company operates through two main segments: risk and insurance services and consulting. In risk and insurance services, the firm offers services via Marsh (an insurance broker) and Guy Carpenter (a risk and reinsurance specialist). The consulting division comprises Mercer (a provider of human resource services) and Oliver Wyman (a management and economic consultancy). About half of its revenue is generated outside the U.S.

Executives

Oscar Fanjul	director	C/O OMEGA CAPITAL, S.L., PASEO DE LA CASTELLANA, 28, MADRID U3 28046
John Jude Jones	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Dean Michael Klisura	officer: President & CEO, Guy Carpenter	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Steven A Mills	director	IBM CORPORATION, 294 ROUTE 100, SOMERS NY 10589
Mark C Mcgivney	officer: Chief Financial Officer
Judith Hartmann	director	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Ray G Young	director	77 WEST WACKER DR., SUITE 4600, CHICAGO IL 60601
Stacy Mills	officer: Vice President and Controller	C/O MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 11102
Paul Beswick	officer: SVP, Chief Information Officer	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Martin South	officer: President & CEO, Marsh	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Martine Ferland	officer: President and CEO, Mercer	C/O MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Katherine Brennan	officer: SVP and General Counsel	1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Daniel S Glaser	officer: Chairman & CEO, Marsh	C/O MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES, INC., 1166 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Hafize Gaye Erkan	director	727 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Marc D Oken	director	C/O FALFURRIAS CAPITAL PARTNERS, 100 N. TRYON STREET, SUITE 5120, CHARLOTTE NC 28202