MIND Technology (MIND Technology) Predictability Rank

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What is MIND Technology Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MIND Technology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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MIND Technology (MIND Technology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » MIND Technology Inc (NAS:MIND) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MINDP.PFD:USA

Address

2002 Timberloch Place, Suite 550, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77380

Website

https://www.mind-technology.com

MIND Technology Inc provides technology and solutions for exploration, survey, and defense applications in oceanographic, hydrographic, defense, seismic, and security industries. The Company operates in segments namely, Seamap Marine Products and Klein Marine Products helps manufacture and sell specialized, high-performance sonar and seismic equipment. The company generates more revenue from Seamap Marine Products. The company's geographical segments include the United States; Europe, Russia & CIS; Middle East & Africa; Asia-Pacific; and Canada & Latin America.

Executives

Peter H Blum	director	999 18TH STREET, STE 1700, DENVER CO 80202
Alan Perry Baden	director	2635 SUTTON COURT, HOUSTON TX 77027
Nancy Jean Harned	director	2704 CHESTER FOREST COURT, VIRGINIA BEACH VA 23452
Thomas S Glanville	director	2818 N SULLIVAN ROAD, SPOLANE WA 99216
Mark Alan Cox	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 1800, HOUSTON TX 77010
Guy Malden	officer: Co-CEO and EVP	P O BOX 1175, HUNTSVILLE TX 77342
Marcus C Rowland	director	920 MEMORIAL CITY WAY, SUITE 850, HOUSTON TX 77024
Robert John Albers	director	2171 LOMA LINDA DRIVE, PAGOSA SPRINGS CO 81147
Robert P Capps	director, officer: Co-CEO and CFO
Dennis Patrick Morris	officer: Chief Operating Officer	7026 TEAL LOOP, GIG HARBOR WA 98335
William Hunter Hilarides	director	10710 OX CROFT CT., FAIRFAX STATION VA 22039
Midwood Capital Management Llc	10 percent owner	575 BOYLSON ST., 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116
Paul Guy Rogers	officer: VP - Business Development
John F Schwalbe	director
R Dean Lewis	director