Maiden Holdings (Maiden Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Maiden Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Maiden Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Maiden Holdings (Maiden Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Maiden Holdings Ltd (NAS:MHLD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

94 Pitts Bay Road, Ideation House, 1st Floor, Pembroke, BMU, HM 08

Website

https://www.maiden.bm

Maiden Holdings Ltd provides reinsurance products and services to regional and specialty property and casualty insurers. The company operates in two segments: AmTrust Reinsurance and Diversified Reinsurance. The AmTrust Reinsurance segment provides products that cover workers' compensation, commercial package, commercial auto, and extended warranty. The Diversified Reinsurance segment provides small and midsize regional and specialty insurers with reinsurance capital products. The company has underwriting operations in Bermuda and the United States, along with business development teams in the United Kingdom, Germany, and other markets.

Executives

Yehuda Neuberger	director	6201 15TH AVENUE, BROOKLYN NY 11219
Keith A Thomas	director	605 WEST 137TH STREET, APT. 35, NEW YORK NY 10031
Maiden Reinsurance Ltd	10 percent owner	159 BANK STREET, 4TH FLOOR, BURLINGTON VT 05401
Maiden Holdings North America, Ltd.	10 percent owner	6000 MIDLANTIC DRIVE, SUITE 200S, MOUNT LAUREL NJ 08054
Maiden Holdings, Ltd.	10 percent owner	48 PAR-LA-VILLE ROAD, SUITE 1141, HAMILTON D0 -HM 11
Steven Harold Nigro	director	445 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016
Simcha G Lyons	director	225 WEST 83RD STREET, APT 3Q, NEW YORK NY 10024
Claude Leblanc	director	ONE BERMUDIANA ROAD, HAMILTON D0 HM 11
Paul S Giordano	director	C/O XL CAPITAL LTD, XL HOUSE, ONE BERMUDIANA RD, HAMILTON BERMUDA D0 HMII
Denis M Butkovic	officer: SVP, General Counsel & Secty	13 ELLIS COURT, MORGANVILLE X1 07751
Raymond Michael Neff	director	PO BOX 460, SARASOTA FL 34230
Holly Lynn Blanchard	director	1952 COUNTY ROAD C, CERESCO NE 68017
William Jarman	officer: SVP & Chief Actuary	224 COUNTRY CLUB DRIVE, MOORESTOWN X1 08057
Michael C Haines	officer: SVP - Finance	701 ROUTE 301, P.O. BOX 320, COLD SPRING X1 10516
Karen Schmitt	officer: PRESIDENT, MAIDEN RE	6000 MIDLANTIC DRIVE, MT LAUREL NJ 08054