MGE Energy (MGE Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is MGE Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

MGE Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

MGE Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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MGE Energy (MGE Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » MGE Energy Inc (NAS:MGEE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

PNM POR HE IDA GNE VIA SUME OGE PNW EVRG NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. AEP PCG D BOM:532555 EXC PEG

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

133 South Blair Street, Madison, WI, USA, 53788

Website

https://www.mgeenergy.com

MGE Energy Inc is a U.S. public utilities holding company based in Wisconsin. The firm generates, purchases, and distributes electricity and natural gas, and also provides transmission services, the company generates electricity from coal and purchased power, but also from natural gas, fuel oil, and renewable sources. MGE operates through five segments, which include Regulated electric utility operations, Regulated gas utility operations, Non-regulated energy operations, Transmission investments, and All other segment which includes investing in companies and property and financing the regulated operations. The majority of electric retail revenue is derived from commercial consumers whereas the majority of natural gas revenue is derived from residential consumers.

Executives

Scott Robert Smith	officer: VP Bus. Regulatory Strategy	623 RAILROAD STREET, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
James G Berbee	director	133 S BLAIR STREET, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
James Jerome Lorenz	officer: VP Business Operations	623 RAILROAD STREET, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Noble Lynnwood Wray	director	623 RAILROAD STREET, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Lynn K Hobbie	officer: Exec VP Marketing & Corp Comm	133 SOUTH BLAIR ST, P.O. BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Gary J Wolter	director	133 SOUTH BLAIR ST., P.O. BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Cari Anne Renlund	officer: VP and General Counsel	133 S BLAIR STREET, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
James L Possin	director	133 SOUTH BLAIR STREET, P.O. BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Tamara Jean Johnson	officer: VP Accounting and Controller	623 RAILROAD STREET, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Jared Joseph Bushek	officer: VP Finance, CIO & Treasurer	623 RAILROAD STREET, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Marcia M Anderson	director	133 S BLAIR STREET, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Jeffrey M Keebler	officer: Sr. VP-Energy Supply & Plan	133 S BLAIR ST, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Regina M Millner	director	133 SOUTH BLAIR ST, P.O. BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Donald D Peterson	officer: VP - Energy Technology	133 S. BLAIR ST, PO BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231
Thomas R Stolper	director	133 SOUTH BLAIR STREET, POST OFFICE BOX 1231, MADISON WI 53701-1231