Medtronic (Medtronic) Predictability Rank

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What is Medtronic Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Medtronic Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Medtronic Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Medtronic (Medtronic) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Medtronic PLC (NYSE:MDT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

MDTN:Mexico 1MDT:Italy 2M6:Germany 2M6:Germany 2M6:Germany 2M6:Germany MDTC34:Brazil MDT:Austria MDT:Argentina

Address

Lower Hatch Street, 20 On Hatch, Dublin, IRL, 2

Website

https://www.medtronic.com

One of the largest medical-device companies, Medtronic develops and manufactures therapeutic medical devices for chronic diseases. Its portfolio includes pacemakers, defibrillators, heart valves, stents, insulin pumps, spinal fixation devices, neurovascular products, advanced energy, and surgical tools. The company markets its products to healthcare institutions and physicians in the United States and overseas. Foreign sales account for roughly 50% of the company's total sales.

Executives

Brett A. Wall	officer: EVP & Group Pres Restora Thera	710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY, LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Gregory L Smith	officer: EVP Global Ops & Supply Chain	710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY, LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Michael Marinaro	officer: EVP & President, Surgical OU	710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY NE, LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Hoedt Rob Ten	officer: EVP & President EMEAC	710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MSLC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Gregory P Lewis	director	C/O HONEYWELL INTERNATIONAL INC., 300 SOUTH TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28202
Sean Salmon	officer: EVP & Group President Diabetes	MEDTRONIC PLC, 710 MEDTRONIC PARKWAY, LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Lidia Fonseca	director	358 SOUTH MAIN STREET, BURLINGTON NC 27215
Karen L Parkhill	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	1717 MAIN STREET, MC 6402, DALLAS TX 75201
Ivan K Fong	officer: EVP GENERAL COUNSEL & SECR	3M CENTER, ST. PAUL MN 55144-1000
Robert John White	officer: EVP & President MITG	MEDTRONIC PLC, 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MS LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Richard H Anderson	director	MEDTRONIC, INC, 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC310, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432-5604
Bradley E Lerman	officer: SVP General Counsel & Corp Sec	MEDTRONIC, INC., 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY MSLC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Geoffrey Martha	officer: Sr VP, Strategy & Bus Dev	710 MEDTRONIC PKWAY, MS LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Jennifer M Kirk	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	5 GREENWAY PLAZA, SUITE 110, HOUSTON TX 77046
John R Liddicoat	officer: EVP & President of Americas	MEDTRONIC PLC, 710 MEDTRONIC PKWY, MS LC300, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432