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Mattel (Mattel) Predictability Rank


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What is Mattel Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Mattel Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Mattel Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Mattel's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Mattel (Mattel) Business Description

Address
333 Continental Boulevard, El Segundo, CA, USA, 90245-5012
Mattel markets toy products that are sold to its wholesale customers and direct to retail consumers. The company offers products for children and families, including toys for infants and preschoolers, girls and boys, youth electronics, hand-held and other games, puzzles, educational toys, media-driven products, and plush and fashion-related toys. Mattel's owned portfolio includes Barbie, Hot Wheels, Fisher-Price, Thomas & Friends, and American Girl. In addition, it currently manufactures toy products for its segments both internally and externally (through manufacturing partners). Nearly 60% of its net sales are generated from North America, with the remainder stemming from international markets.
Executives
Richard Todd Bradley director C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Yoon J. Hugh officer: SVP & Corporate Controller C/O MATTEL, INC., 333 CONTINENTAL BOULEVARD, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Isaias Zanatta Roberto Jacobo officer: EVP & Chief Supply Chain Offr 333 CONTINENTAL BOULEVARD, TWR 15-1, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Steve Totzke officer: President, Chief Comm Officer 333 CONTINENTAL BOULEVARD, TWR 15-1, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Amanda J Thompson officer: EVP & Chief People Officer 333 CONTINENTAL BOULEVARD, TRW 15-1, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Jonathan Anschell officer: EVP Chief Legal Officer & Sec C/O CBS CORPORATION, 51 WEST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019
Noreena Hertz director C/O WARNER MUSIC GROUP CORP., 1633 BROADWAY, NEW YORK NY 10019
Soren T Laursen director 333 CONTINENTAL BOULEVARD, TRW 15-1, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Anthony Disilvestro officer: Chief Financial Officer 1 CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Richard Dickson officer: Pres & Chief Operating Officer C/O MATTEL, INC., 333 CONTINENTAL BOULEVARD, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Diana Sue Ferguson director C/O SARA LEE CORP, 70 W MADISO ST, CHICAGO IL 60602
Michael J Dolan director C/O MATTEL INC, 333 CONTINENTAL BLVD M-1518, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Joseph J Euteneuer officer: Chief Financial Officer
Ynon Kreiz director 333 CONTINENTAL BOULEVARD, M1: 1518, EL SEGUNDO CA 90245
Roger Lynch director PANDORA MEDIA, INC., 2101 WEBSTER STREET, SUITE 1650, OAKLAND CA 94612