Quaker Houghton (Quaker Houghton) Predictability Rank

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What is Quaker Houghton Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Quaker Houghton Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Quaker Houghton (Quaker Houghton) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Quaker Houghton (NYSE:KWR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

901 East Hector Street, Conshohocken, PA, USA, 19428-2380

Website

https://www.quakerhoughton.com

Quaker Houghton manufactures and sells a variety of industrial process fluids. The product portfolio of the company includes metal removal fluids, cleaning fluids, corrosion inhibitors, metal drawing and forming fluids, die cast mold releases, heat treatment and quenchants, metal forging fluids, hydraulic fluids, specialty greases, offshore sub-sea energy control fluids, rolling lubricants, rod and wire drawing fluids and surface treatment chemicals. The geographic segments of the company includes America, EMEA, Asia/Pacific and Global Specialty Businesses. Majority of the revenue is earned from America.

Executives

Jeewat Bijlani	officer: SVP - Managing Director, Ams.	QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, ONE QUAKER PARK, 901 E. HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428-2380
Anna Ransley	officer: SVP, CDIO	QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, 901 E. HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428-2380
Russell Shaller	director	6555 WEST GOOD HOPE RD, MILWAUKEE WI 53223
Melissa Leneis	officer: SVP, CHRO	QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, 901 E. HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428-2380
Jeffry D Frisby	director	C/O QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, ONE QUAKER PARK, 901 HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
David Slinkman	officer: SVP - Chief Technology Officer	QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, ONE QUAKER PARK, 901 E. HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428-2380
Joseph A Berquist	officer: VP & Managing Director - NA	QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, ONE QUAKER PARK, 901 E. HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428-2380
Robert T Traub	officer: SVP, GC & Corp. Sec.	QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, ONE QUAKER PARK, 901 E. HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428-2380
David Will	other: VP, Global Controller & PAO	QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, 901 E. HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428-2380
Michael F Barry	officer: VP & CFO & Treasurer	ONE QUAKER PARK, 901 HECTOR ST, CONSHOHOCHEN PA 19428
Jeffrey L Fleck	officer: SVP, Chief GSCO	1310 SEABOARD INDUSTRIAL BLVD, ATLANTA X1 30318
L Wilbert Platzer	officer: VP - WWO
Dieter Laininger	officer: Vice President - Global Steel	QUAKER CHEMICAL CORPORATION, ONE QUAKER PARK, 901 E. HECTOR STREET, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428-2380
Gulf Hungary Holding Korlatolt Felelossegu Tarsasag	10 percent owner	FURJ UTCA 2, BUDAPEST K5 1124
Qh Hungary Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	STERLING TRUST CAYMAN LTD, WH, 238 NORTH CHURCH STREET, P.O BOX 1043, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1102