Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions) Predictability Rank

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What is Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (Kratos Defense & Security Solutions) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Aerospace & Defense » Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc (NAS:KTOS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WF5A:Germany WF5A:Germany

Address

1 Chisholm Trail, Suite 300, Round Rock, TX, USA, 78681

Website

https://www.kratosdefense.com

Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc develops and fields transformative, affordable technology, platforms, and systems. The company has two segments; The Kratos Government Solutions (KGS) segment is comprised of an aggregation of KGS operating segments, including its microwave electronic products, space, training, and cybersecurity, C5ISR/modular systems, turbine technologies, and defense and rocket support services operating segments and The Unmanned Systems segment consists of unmanned aerial, unmanned ground, unmanned seaborne and related command, control, and communications system businesses. The company derives a majority of its revenue from the Kratos Government Solutions segment.

Executives

Phillip D Carrai	officer: President, TTS Division	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Deanna Hom Lund	officer: Senior Vice President & CFO	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Steven S. Fendley	officer: President, US Division	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Mills Thomas E Iv	officer: Modular Systems Div. President	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Marie Mendoza	officer: VP & General Counsel	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Stacey G Rock	officer: President, KTT Division	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Bradley L Boyd	director	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Daniel J Hagen	director	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Benjamin M. Goodwin	officer: President, PSS Division	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Jonah Adelman	officer: Pres., Microwave Elec. Div.	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Jane Elizabeth Judd	director	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Cervantes De Burgreen Maria	officer: VP & Corporate Controller	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Samuel N Liberatore	director	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Eric M Demarco	director, officer: President & CEO	10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131
Scott I Anderson	director	C/O KRATOS DEFENSE & SECURITY SOLUTIONS, 10680 TREENA STREET, SUITE 600, SAN DIEGO CA 92131