KeyCorp (KeyCorp) Predictability Rank

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What is KeyCorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

KeyCorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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KeyCorp (KeyCorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » KeyCorp (NYSE:KEY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KEYpL.PFD:USA KEYpK.PFD:USA KEYpJ.PFD:USA KEYpI.PFD:USA KEY:Germany KEY:Germany K1EY34:Brazil KEY:Austria

Address

127 Public Square, Cleveland, OH, USA, 44114-1306

Website

https://www.key.com

With assets of over $170 billion, Ohio-based KeyCorp's bank footprint spans 16 states, but it is predominantly concentrated in its two largest markets: Ohio and New York. KeyCorp is primarily focused on serving middle-market commercial clients through a hybrid community/corporate bank model.

Executives

Douglas M Schosser	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114-1306
Carlton L Highsmith	director	C/O NEWALLIANCE BANK, 195 CHURCH STREET, NEW HAVEN CT 06510
Devina A Rankin	director	800 CAPITOL STREET 3000, HOUSTON TX 77002
Amy G. Brady	officer: Chief Information Officer	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Paine Andrew J Iii	officer: Head of Institutional Bank	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Richard J Hipple	director	10035 HUNTING DRIVE, BRECKSVILLE OH 44141
Victor B Alexander	officer: Head of Consumer Bank	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Gillis Ruth Ann M	director	10 SOUTH DEERBORN STREET, 37TH FLOOR, CHICAGO IL 80603
Angela G Mago	officer: Head of Commercial Bank	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Allyson M Kidik	officer: Chief Risk Review Officer	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Richard J Tobin	director	3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200, DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Brian L Fishel	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Kenneth C Gavrity	officer: Head of Enterprise Payments	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Jamie Warder	officer: Head of Digital Banking	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Trina M Evans	officer: Director, Corporate Center	127 PUBLIC SQUARE, CLEVELAND OH 44114