Johnson Outdoors (Johnson Outdoors) Predictability Rank

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What is Johnson Outdoors Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Johnson Outdoors Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Johnson Outdoors (Johnson Outdoors) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » Johnson Outdoors Inc (NAS:JOUT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

555 Main Street, Racine, WI, USA, 53403

Website

https://www.johnsonoutdoors.com

Johnson Outdoors Inc is a manufacturer and marketer of branded seasonal, outdoor recreation products used for fishing from a boat, diving, paddling, hiking and camping. The company has four operating segment: Fishing, Camping, Watercraft Recreation, and Diving. It generates maximum revenue from the Fishing segment which produces and markets products under different brands such as Minn Kota electric motors for quiet trolling or primary propulsion, marine battery chargers and shallow water anchors; Humminbird sonar and GPS equipment for fish finding, navigation and marine cartography; and Cannon downriggers for controlled-depth fishing. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States and also has a presence in Europe, Canada, and other regions.

Executives

David W Johnson	officer: VP and Chief Financial Officer	C/O JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC., 555 MAIN STREET, RACINE WI 53403
Jeffrey M Stutz	director	855 EAST MAIN, ZEELAND MI 49464
Fahey John M Jr	director	C/O NATINAL GEOGRAPHIC, 1146 17TH STREET NW, WASHINTON DC 20036
Liliann Annie Zipfel	director	555 MAIN STREET, RACINE WI 53403
Paul Garvin Alexander	director	2400 MASSACHUSETTS AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421
Pyle Thomas F Jr	director	3500 CORBEN COURT, MADISON WI 53704
Edward F Lang	director	C/O JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC., 555 MAIN STREET, RACINE WI 53403
Terry E London	director	100 PIER 1 PLACE, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Richard Case Sheahan	director	C/O JOHNSON OUTDOORS INC., 555 MAIN STREET, RACINE WI 53403
William D Perez	director
Edward A Stevens	director	555 MAIN STREET, RACINE WI 53403
Katherine Button Bell	director	10 PICARDY LANE, ST LOUIS MO 63124
Towerview Llc	10 percent owner	460 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Johnson Leipold Helen P	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/OJ/K MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC, 555 MAIN STREET, RACINE WI 53403-1015
Daniel R Tisch	10 percent owner	460 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022