Juniper Networks (Juniper Networks) Predictability Rank

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What is Juniper Networks Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Juniper Networks Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Juniper Networks (Juniper Networks) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Juniper Networks Inc (NYSE:JNPR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

1JNPR:Italy JNP:Germany JNP:Germany JNP:Germany

Address

1133 Innovation Way, Sunnyvale, CA, USA, 94089

Website

https://www.juniper.net

Juniper Networks Inc is engaged in designing, developing, and selling products and services for high-performance networks to enable customers to build scalable, reliable, secure, and cost-effective networks for their businesses, while achieving agility and improved operating efficiency through automation. The company's high-performance network and service offerings include routing, switching, Wi-Fi, network security, artificial intelligence (AI) or AI-enabled enterprise networking operations (AIOps), and software-defined networking (SDN) technologies. In addition to the company's products, the company offers its customers a variety of services, including maintenance and support, professional services, Software-as-a-Service ("SaaS"), and education and training programs.

Executives

Robert Mobassaly	officer: SVP General Counsel	1133 INNOVATION WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Rami Rahim	officer: EVP Platform Systems Division	1194 N. MATHILDA AVE., SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Anne Delsanto	director	1133 INNOVATION WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Kenneth Bradley Miller	officer: EVP & CFO	1133 INNOVATION WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94086
Kevin A Denuccio	director	300 HOLGER WAY, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Dolce James A Jr	director	C/O JUNIPER NETWORKS, 140 CASPIAN COURT, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Kaddaras Christopher Nicholas Jr	officer: EVP Chief Revenue Officer	C/O NUTANIX, INC., 1740 TECHNOLOGY DR., STE 150, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Scott Kriens	director	C/O JUNIPER NETWORKS INC, 1194 N MATHILDA AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Steven Fernandez	director	1133 INNOVATION WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Manoj Leelanivas	officer: EVP Chief Product Officer	1133 INNOVATION WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Marcus Jewell	officer: EVP Chief Revenue Officer	1133 INNOVATION WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
William Stensrud	director	13491 SUMMIT CIRCLE, POWAY CA 92064
Thomas A Austin	officer: Vice President &	1133 INNOVATION WAY, SUNNYVALE CA 94089
Brian Martin	officer: SVP General Counsel Secty	160 RIO ROBLES, SAN JOSE CA 95134
Bikash Koley	officer: EVP CTO	1133 INNOVATION DRIVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94116