J&J Snack Foods (J&J Snack Foods) Predictability Rank

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What is J&J Snack Foods Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

J&J Snack Foods Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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J&J Snack Foods (J&J Snack Foods) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » J&J Snack Foods Corp (NAS:JJSF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

JJ1:Germany

Address

350 Fellowship Road, Mt. Laurel, NJ, USA, 08054

Website

https://www.jjsnack.com

J&J Snack Foods Corp manufactures, markets, and distributes snack foods and beverages to foodservice and retail supermarket outlets. The company's products include frozen beverages, juice, fruit bars, sorbet, cakes, and cookies that are distributed to various consumers, including restaurants, supermarkets, convenience stores, universities, theaters, and theme parks. The company operates in three business segments: food service, which sells snacks, desserts, and baked goods at the point-of-sale; retail supermarkets, which sells frozen and prepackaged products to supermarkets; and frozen beverages, which sells frozen beverages under brands Icee, Slush puppie, and Parrot ice in the United States, Mexico, and Canada.

Executives

Dan Fachner	officer: President, ICEE	1205 DUPONT CIRCLE, ONTARIO CA 91761-7817
Marjorie Shreiber Roshkoff	director	6000 CENTRAL HIGHWAY, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Mary Lou Kehoe	officer: VP, Human Resources	9 GITHENS LANE, LUMBERTON NJ 08048
Stephen Every	officer: COO, The ICEE Co	C/O J & J SNACK FOODS CORP., 6000 CENTRAL HIGHWAY, PENNSAUKEN PA 08109
Robert Cranmer	officer: Senior VP, Operations	3 EAST DICKENS COURT, JACKSON NJ 08527
Mary Meder	director	201 S. 18TH ST #2416, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Gerald B Shreiber	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO	6000 CENTRAL HIGHWAY, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Roy Christopher Jackson	director	1040 BRICKYARD LANE, GREENSBORO GA 30642
Michael A Pollner	officer: SVP, General Counsel & Secy.	C/O KNOLL, INC., 1235 WATER STREET, EAST GREENVILLE PA 18041
Robert Joseph Pape	officer: Senior Vice President	6000 CENTRAL HIGHWAY, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
2021 Irrevocable Trust For Gerald B. Shreiber	10 percent owner	6000 CENTRAL HIGHWAY, PENNSAUKEN PA 08109
Lynwood Mallard	officer: Senior Vice President and CMO	C/O J & J SNACK FOODS CORP., 6000 CENTRAL HIGHWAY, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Dennis G Moore	director, officer: Sr. Vice President	6000 CNTRAL HIGHWAY, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Robert M Radano	director, officer: Senior Vice President	6000 CNTRAL HIGHWAY, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109
Ken Allen Plunk	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	6000 CENTRAL HIGHWAY, PENNSAUKEN NJ 08109