The Interpublic Group of (The Interpublic Group of) Predictability Rank

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What is The Interpublic Group of Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Interpublic Group of Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Interpublic Group of (The Interpublic Group of) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Media - Diversified » The Interpublic Group of Companies Inc (NYSE:IPG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

IPG:Germany IPG:Germany

Address

909 Third Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10022

Website

https://www.interpublic.com

Interpublic Group is among the world's largest advertising holding companies based on annual revenue. It provides traditional advertising services along with digital and other services such as public relations through various acquisitions. IPG has made these services available in over 100 countries. The company generates more than 80% of its revenue from developed regions such as the United States and Europe.

Executives

Jorge L. Benitez	director	5201 BLUE LAGOON DRIVE, SUITE 250, MIAMI FL 33126
Dawn E Hudson	director	2530 ZANKER ROAD, SAN JOSE CA 95131
Jocelyn Carter-miller	director	3698 NW 15TH STREET, LAUDERHILL FL 33311
Christopher F Carroll	officer: SVP, Controller & CAO	3 TIMES SQUARE, 12TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10036
Andrew Bonzani	officer: SVP, General Counsel & Sec.	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Ellen Tobi Johnson	officer: SVP of Finance & Treasurer	C/O IPG, 1114 AVE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Mary Guilfoile	director	227 WASHINGTON STREET STE.200, CONSHOHOCKEN PA 19428
Michael Isor Roth	director	THE INTERPUBLIC GROUP OF COMPANIES, INC., 1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Philippe Krakowsky	officer: SVP, Dir of Corporate Comms
H John Greeniaus	director
Linda S Sanford	director	4 IRVING PLACE, NEW YORK NY 10003
Julie Connors	officer: SVP,Audit & Chief Risk Officer	C/O IPG, 1114 AVE OF THE AMERICAS, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
David M Thomas	director	930 CLAPBOARD RIDGE ROAD, GREENWICH CT 06830
Frank Mergenthaler	officer: Exec. VP & CFO	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
Patrick Q Moore	director	625 ELMWOOD DRIVE NE, ATLANTA GA 30306