Huntsman (Huntsman) Predictability Rank

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What is Huntsman Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Huntsman Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Huntsman (Huntsman) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » Huntsman Corp (NYSE:HUN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HTR:Germany

Address

10003 Woodloch Forest Drive, The Woodlands, TX, USA, 77380

Website

https://www.huntsman.com

Huntsman Corp is a us-based manufacturer of differentiated organic chemical products. Its product portfolio comprises Methyl diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI), Amines, Maleic anhydride, Epoxy-based polymer formulations. The company's products are used in adhesives, aerospace, automotive, construction products, among others. Its operating segments are Polyurethanes, Performance Products and Advanced Materials. It derives most of its revenue from the Polyurethanes segment which includes MDI, polyols, TPU (thermoplastic polyurethane), and other polyurethane-related products. Its geographical segments are the United States & Canada, Europe, Asia- Pacific, and the Rest of the world.

Executives

David M Stryker	officer: Exec VP, GC and Sec	500 HUNTSMAN WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Curtis E Espeland	director	C/O EASTMAN CHEMICAL CO, 200 S WILCOX DRIVE, KINGSPORT TN 37660-5280
David B Sewell	director	101 W. PROSPECT AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44115
Munoz Barcelo Jose Antonio	director	C/O HUNTSMAN CORPORATION, 10003 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Steven C. Jorgensen	officer: VP & Controller	10003 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Philip M. Lister	officer: Exec VP & CFO	10003 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Randy W. Wright	officer: VP and Controller	500 HUNTSMAN WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Scott J Wright	officer: Division President	500 HUNTSMAN WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Jeanne Mcgovern	director	10003 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Mary C Beckerle	director	500 HUNTSMAN WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Brittany Benko	officer: Sr. VP, EHS	10003 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Charlton R. Hirsch	officer: SVP, Performance Products	10003 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380
Cynthia Egan	director	7117 BELLONA AVENUE, BALTIMORE MD 21212
Sonia Dula	director	4000 PONCE DE LEON BLVD., SUITE 650, CORAL GABLES FL 33146
Peter R Huntsman	director, officer: President and CEO	WATERWAY 1, 10003 WOODLOCH FOREST DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380