Hills Bancorp (Hills Bancorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is Hills Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hills Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Hills Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Hills Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Hills Bancorp (Hills Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Hills Bancorp (OTCPK:HBIA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

131 E. Main Street, PO Box 160, Hills, IA, USA, 52235

Website

https://www.hillsbank.com

Hills Bancorp is a holding company engaged in the business of commercial banking serving individuals, businesses, governmental units and institutional customers in the United States. It offers services including acceptance of demand, savings and time deposits, providing commercial, real estate, agricultural and consumer loans, maintaining night and safe deposit facilities, and performing collection, exchange, and other banking services. Also, it administers estates, personal trusts, and pension plans and provides farm management, investment advisory and custodial services for individuals, corporations, and nonprofit organizations. The company also provides mortgage loans and commercial and financial loans. Most of the company's revenue comes from interest income.

Executives

Anthony V Roetlin	officer: SVP Chief Financial Officer	131 E. MAIN ST. PO BOX 160, HILLS IA 52235
Joseph Andrew Schueller	officer: SVP, CFO, Treasurer	131 E. MAIN ST., HILLS IA 52235
Lisa A Shileny	officer: Sr VP, Dr of Administration	131 E MAIN ST, P.O. BOX 160, HILLS IA 52235
Shari J Demaris	officer: Treasurer	1560 MCKINLEY PL, IOWA CITY IA 52246
Steven R Ropp	officer: SR VP, Director Comm'l Banking	131 MAIN STREET, PO BOX 160, HILLS IA 52235
James C Schmitt	director	131 E MAIN STREET, PO BOX 160, HILLS IA 52235
Thomas R Wiele	director	1306 217TH ST., NICHOLS IA 52766
Michael S Donovan	director	131 MAIN STREET, HILLS IA 52235
John W Phelan	director	131 MAIN STREET, HILLS IA 52235
Casey L Peck	director	131 E MAIN STREET, PO BOX 160, HILLS IA 52235
Kirsten H Frey	director	131 E MAIN STREET, PO BOX 160, HILLS IA 52235
Bradford C Zuber	officer: SRVP, Director Trust Services	131 MAIN STREET, PO BOX 160, HILLS IA 52235
Michael Hodge	director	15 LINDOER VALLEY CIRCLE, IOWA CITY IA 52240
Theodore H Pacha	director	PO BOX 1405, IOWA CITY IA 52240
James A Nowak	director	131 MAIN STREET, HILLS IA 52235

Hills Bancorp (Hills Bancorp) Headlines

No Headlines