Hanesbrands (Hanesbrands) Predictability Rank

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What is Hanesbrands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hanesbrands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Hanesbrands Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Hanesbrands (Hanesbrands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories » Hanesbrands Inc (NYSE:HBI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HN9:Germany H1BI34:Brazil

Address

1000 East Hanes Mill Road, Winston-Salem, NC, USA, 27105

Website

https://www.hanes.com

Hanesbrands manufactures basic and athletic apparel under brands including Hanes, Champion, Playtex, Maidenform, Bali, Berlei, and Bonds. The company sells wholesale to discount, midmarket, and department store retailers as well as direct to consumers through stores and e-commerce. Hanesbrands is vertically integrated as it produces more than 70% of its products in company-controlled factories in more than three dozen nations. Hanesbrands distributes products in the Americas, Europe, and Asia-Pacific. The company was founded in 1901 and is based in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

Executives

Mark A Irvin	director	7601 PENN AVENUE, RICHFIELD MN 55423
Michael Dastugue	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6501 LEGACY DRIVE, PLANO TX 75024
William S Simon	director	1000 DARDEN CENTER DRIVE, ORLANDO FL 32837
Joseph W Cavaliere	officer: President Innerwear Global	1000 E. HANES MILL ROAD, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Markland Scott Lewis	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD, LEGAL DEPARTMENT, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Michael E. Faircloth	officer: EVP Supply Chain - Global	1000 EAST HANES MILL ROAD, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Geralyn Breig	director	ONE OLD COUNTRY ROAD, SUITE 500, CARLE PLACE NY 11514
Scott A Pleiman	officer: See Remarks	1000 E. HANES MILL ROAD, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
Robert F Moran	director	C/O GNC HOLDINGS, INC., 300 SIXTH AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222
Tracy M Preston	officer: GC, Corp Sec and CCO	1000 E. HANES MILL ROAD, WINSTON-SALEM NC 27105
James C Johnson	director	1901 CHOUTEAU AVENUE, P. O. BOX 66149, MC-1370, ST. LOUIS MO 63166-6149
Kristin L Oliver	officer: Chief Human Resources Officer	11215 METRO PARKWAY, FORT MYERS FL 33966
Franck J Moison	director	C/O COLGATE PALMOLIVE CO, 300 PARK AVE 15TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ann Elizabeth Ziegler	director	ONE EAST WACKER DR, CHICAGO IL 60601
Bobby J Griffin	director	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC., 100 FIRST STAMFORD PL STE 700, STAMFORD CT 06902