Garmin (Garmin) Predictability Rank

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What is Garmin Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Garmin Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Garmin (Garmin) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Garmin Ltd (NYSE:GRMN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GRMN:Mexico G1RM34:Brazil GRMN:Argentina

Address

Muhlentalstrasse 2, Schaffhausen, CHE, 8200

Website

https://www.garmin.com

Garmin produces GPS-enabled hardware and software for five verticals: fitness, outdoors, auto, aviation, and marine. The company relies on licensing mapping data to enable its hardware specialized for often niche activities like scuba diving or sailing. Garmin operates in 100 countries and sells its products via distributors as well as relationships with original equipment manufacturers.

Executives

Clifton A Pemble	director, officer: President and CEO
Cheng-wei Wang	officer: General Manager - Garmin Corp.	NO. 68, ZHANGSHU 2ND ROAD, XIZHI DISTRICT, NEW TAIPEI CITY F5 221
Sean Biddlecombe	officer: General Manager, Garmin Europe	LIBERTY HOUSE, HOUNSDOWN BUSINESS PARK, SOUTHAMPTON X0 SO40 9LR
Douglas G. Boessen	officer: CFO and Treasurer	3231 S.E. SIXTH AVENUE, TOPEKA KS 66607
Patrick Desbois	officer: Vice President, Operations	1200 EAST 151ST STREET, OLATHE KS 66062
Matthew Munn	officer: VP, Man. Director - Auto OEM	28001 CABOT DRIVE, SUITE 100, NOVI MI 48377
Philip Straub	officer: VP, Man. Director - Aviation	1200 EAST 151ST STREET, OLATHE KS 66062
Jonathan Burrell	10 percent owner	6300 WEST 143RD STREET, OVERLAND PARK KS 66223
Joseph J Hartnett	director	425 NORTH MARTINGALE ROAD, SUITE 1000, SCHAUMBURG IL 60173
Min H Kao	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO	1200 E. 151ST ST., OLATHE KS 66062
Catherine A. Lewis	director	325 NE NORTHGATE CROSSING, LEE'S SUMMIT MO 64064
Pao-chang Huang	officer: General Manager - Garmin Corp.	NO. 68, JANGSHU 2ND ROAD, SIJHIH, TAPEI F5 ROC
Danny J Bartel	officer: Vice President,Worldwide Sales	1200 EAST 151ST STREET, OLATHE KS 66062
Donald Eller	director
Andrew R Etkind	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	1200 E 151 ST ST, OLATHE KS 66062