GlycoMimetics (GlycoMimetics) Predictability Rank

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What is GlycoMimetics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

GlycoMimetics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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GlycoMimetics (GlycoMimetics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » GlycoMimetics Inc (NAS:GLYC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

GKO:Germany

Address

9708 Medical Center Drive, Rockville, MD, USA, 20850

Website

https://www.glycomimetics.com

GlycoMimetics Inc is a clinical stage biotechnology company. It is focused on the discovery and development of novel glycomimetic drugs to address unmet medical needs resulting from diseases in which carbohydrate biology plays a key role. Glycomimetics are molecules that mimic the structure of carbohydrates involved in important biological processes. Using expertise in carbohydrate chemistry and knowledge of carbohydrate biology, the company is developing a pipeline of proprietary glycomimetics that may inhibit disease-related functions of carbohydrates, such as the roles it plays in inflammation, cancer, and infection.

Executives

Edwin Rock	officer: Chief Medical Officer	9708 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Brian M. Hahn	officer: CFO	C/O GLYCOMIMETICS, INC., 401 PROFESSIONAL DRIVE, SUITE 250, GAITHERSBURG MD 20879
Daniel M Junius	director	C/O IMMUNOGEN, INC., 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Bruce S Johnson	officer: SVP & Chief Commercial Officer	9708 MEDICAL CENTER DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20850
Chinmaya Rath	officer: SVP and Chief Business Officer	9708 MEDICAL CENTER DR., ROCKVILLE MD 20850
Invus Public Equities, L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE INVUS GROUP, LLC, 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Invus Public Equities Advisors, Llc	10 percent owner	C/O THE INVUS GROUP, LLC, 750 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 30TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Artal Group S.a.	10 percent owner	VALLEY PARK, 44, RUE DE LA VALLEE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2661
Artal International S.c.a.	10 percent owner	VALLEY PARK, 44, RUE DE LA VALLEE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2661
S.a. Westend	10 percent owner	VALLEY PARK, 44, RUE DE LA VALLEE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2661
Administratiekantoor Westend Stichting	10 percent owner	CLAUDE DEBUSSYLAAN, 46, AMSTERDAM P7 1082 MD
Artal International Management S.a.	10 percent owner	VALLEY PARK, 44, RUE DE LA VALLEE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-2661
Amaury Wittouck	10 percent owner	VALLEY PARK, 44, RUE DE LA VALLEE, LUXEMBOURG N4 L2661
Scott D Sandell	10 percent owner
Harout Semerjian	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	300 THE AMERICAN ROAD, C/O IMMUNOMEDICS, INC., MORRIS PLAINS NJ 07950